Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB Kyle Arrington

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013
Kyle Arrington is in an interesting place from a contract perspective. On the one hand, he was one of the few bright spots in New England's secondary this past season. He was a sure tackler, placing second on the team in total tackles with 88, including 66 solo, and was 9th best among all defensive backs in broken tackle rate (source,  Patrick Chung was 7th). He was the teams best pass defender, leading the league with 7 interceptions and the team with 15 passes defended. 


On the other hand, coming into the season Arrington was expected to be fourth on the Patriots depth chart at cornerback behind Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, and Ras-I Dowling. Unfortunately, due to the regressed play from Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden being cut, and the season ending injury to Ras-I Dowling, Arrington was forced into a starting role in the secondary. While he performed adequately this past season, he has not done it consistently. He was a significant liability two years ago, and if Ras-I Dowling comes back healthy this year, he is likely to usurp Arrington as the starter.


This then leads to the question, do the Patriots pay him starter money or not. The Patriots tend to be particularly frugal at the cornerback position; and as last year showed they're not afraid give significant reps to players from the scrap heap or even offense. (see: Antwan Molden, Sterling Moore, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater) Arrington fits better in the slot as his smaller size (5'10") can be a liability against bigger receivers. Alfonzo Dennard, a 7th round draft pick, has the skills to compete for the starting slot job, but will likely be expected to add depth instead.


Finally, not to be disregarded Arrington is a consistent and solid contributor on special teams.


Proposed New Contract: $6.5M/2 years, $2M guaranteed, $1.5M in escalators
To quickly clarify this contract, I imagine Arrington receiving a $2M signing bonus (the guaranteed amount), a $2M base salary in 2013 and $2.5M in 2014, with the possibility of both of those salary numbers increasing (the $1.5M in escalators) based on incentives such as play time, being voted to the Pro Bowl, and/or getting a certain number of interceptions.

Ultimately, the value of this contract and whether Arrington signs it is going to depend heavily on two things: his play this upcoming season, and Ras-I Dowling's health. If the Ras-I Dowling stays healthy and plays well,  I would not be surprised to see Kyle Arrington walk in free agency. I think the Patriots would have more leverage in that situation and they would try to get away with underpaying him. They have replacement options in Alfonzo Dennard and Sterling Moore and can address his leaving in free agency or the draft.

However, if Dowling continues to have health issues and/or Moore and Dennard are unable to contribute, the Patriots may have to sweeten the deal to keep him around.