I have added all of the rookies to the salary cap page. The minimum base salary for rookies this year is $390,000. I based the signing bonuses on last years draft looking at both where they were drafted overall and their position. As the contracts are released I will update them. Also to note, the Patriots currently have 85 players on the roster after they sign all of their draft pick and Welker, leaving 5 more spots for free agents.
Also, with the announcement of Matt Light's retirement I removed his salary from the cap. The Pats bought out his remaining salary for $1.5M which will save them $5M in cap space. The $1.5M is reflected in the dead cap table.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Post Draft Analysis - Thoughts on the Pats, AFC East, and More
1. Thoughts on the Draft Class:
The draft has officially ended. The Patriots drafted a total of seven players, one of the leanest draft classes they've had in the Belichick era. Overall, I would say the theme of their picks was versatility. Nearly every player selected has the ability to play multiple positions. Many fans are excited that the Patriots took an aggressive strategy this year addressing the teams obvious weak point, the defense. All of the picks were on the defensive side of the ball with the lone exception being their last pick, a wide receiver out of Northwestern. I would say depth along both the offensive and defensive line, safety, and return specialist are the three areas that they should address in free agency.
2. Pick By Pick Grading:
When applying these grades I'm trying to balance a few things: the skill of the player, the value of the pick, the need on the team/the fit, and what other players were available.
Round 1, Pick #21 Overall:
Chandler Jones - Defensive End, Syracuse
The Patriots traded up from #27 to select Jones, giving up their original third round pick (#93 overall). As I mentioned in the previous post, Jones looks like a great addition to the team and he fills the biggest need on the team, a pass rushing outside linebacker/defensive end when in a 3-4/4-3 respectively. He even has the size, 6'5" 265lbs, to play defensive end in a 3-3-5 nickel defense. My issue with the pick is the price and the other available players. It is exciting to know the Patriots are confident enough in him to move up to get him, but I didn't see much of a difference between him and Nick Perry who was selected #28 overall by the Packers. The third round selection was a pretty steep price to pay and I think that effected their decisions later in the draft.
Grade: B
Round 1, Pick #25 Overall:
Donta Hightower - Inside Linebacker, Alabama
Again the Patriots traded up from #31 to select Hightower, giving up their original fourth round pick (#126 overall). Contrary to Jones, I think this was a great trade. A fourth rounder to move up 6 spots in the first round is great value. Like Jones, they got a great defensive player who can dominate in the run game and get after the quarterback on third down. My major issues with the pick are the fit and Hightower's pass coverage abilities. Hightower looks very similar to Brandon Spikes, one of the young stars on the defense, including his liability in coverage. If Hightower brought something more to the table in that area, I might be higher on the pick, but looking at who else was available I would have supported trading back at this point, ideally into the late second or third with a first in next years draft.
Grade: C+
Round 2, Pick #48 Overall:
Tavon Wilson - Defensive Back, Illinois
A pick that had almost everyone following the draft say, "who?". In terms of a need and skill set, I love this pick. The value, however, I think is poor. This was the exact kind of player when I was highlighting the safety position in my Needs post. "I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage" Wilson played safety for most of his time at Illinois, but his senior year he was moved to cornerback where he regularly lined up against tight ends and slot receivers. After watching what little film is available on him he shows some promise, but I really feel like this was an overdraft because he was on practically no one elses radar. At the time the Patriots only had this pick and #62 overall. If they were having difficulty, finding a viable trade partner they may have had to take Wilson while they were here. After watching some of his tape, he seems to be decent in coverage, but has poor tackling form. He needs to learn to wrap up the ball carrier instead of just thrusting at him with his shoulder.
Grade: B-
Round 3, Pick #90 Overall:
Jake Bequette - Defensive End, Arkansas
My second favorite pick of their entire draft. I think they hit on all points: skill, value, and fit. Bequette doesn't have the flashiest tape but he is consistent and relentless. He played at both left and right defensive end in Arkansas' 4-3 defense. He is someone I see as replacing Mark Anderson's situational pass rushing position. He spent most of his time with his hand in the dirt, but I think he actually looked a little better standing up. In my opinion, he doesn't have the strength to be consistent against the run in a four lineman front, but he's at his best sprinting into the backfield.
Grade: A
Round 6, Pick #197 Overall:
Nate Ebner - Defensive Back, Ohio State
Ebner was a walk on at Ohio State who also played rugby. He predominantly played safety and contributed on special teams. He had a good relationship with former Patriot Mike Vrabel, who stressed the importance of special teams. Ebner's play on special teams and added depth to the safety position make this a good pick. The only complaint I have I think there might have been a few other players out there, particularly along the defensive line, which may have helped the team more.
Grade: B+
Round 7, Pick #224 Overall:
Alfonzo Dennard - Cornerback, Nebraska
My favorite pick in the Pats draft. Dennard is a player that has second round talent that fell this far because of an incident a week ago at a bar fight where he was arrested for assaulting a police officer. This is the ultimate low risk, high reward pick. Either he gets his act together and plays well, or he continues to be a headache and the Pats lose essentially nothing. He was never considered to be a number one corner, but instead projected to be a solid starter in the slot. Similar to wide receiver, the Pats are getting a lot of depth at corner which will inspire competition in training camp and allow them to be robust to injuries.
Grade: A+
Round 7, Pick #235 Overall:
Jeremy Ebert - Wide Receiver, Northwestern
Julian Edelmen 2.0. On a side note: I am a big fan of Edelman, not only for his play and willingness to do anything (read: play cornerback), but also for his love of Boston and the other Boston sports teams. Ebert was a high school quarterback who converted to a slot receiver in college. He is similar height and build to Wes Welker and Edelman and will likely back them up. He is the eleventh wide receiver on the team and is unlikely to make the roster this year, but learning from Welker will be a great situation for him. He provides youth to a receiving corps that is distinctly lacking in that area.
Grade: B+
Undrafted:
Brad Herman - Tight End, Iowa
A strong tight end that has some athleticism, but never was able to achieve success in college. Most likely considered to be a blocking tight end for run plays although he is a little small for that. A solid practice squad player.
Grade: B
Undrafted:
Markus Zusevics - Offensive Tackle, Iowa
A polished slightly undersized tackle (in girth not height) who would likely play guard due to his trouble against speed rushers. Zusevics doesn't have as much upside as other undrafted lineman, but he shows good technique and is known for his hard working attitude. He injured himself at the combine.
Grade: B+
Undrafted:
Jeremiah Warren - Offensive Guard, South Florida
I mentioned in the Needs post that depth at guard is necessary due to the uncertainty at the position. I thought a raw prospect that has intriguing upside would be the best target. On paper, Warren looks like that player. He is someone who used his considerable size and strength to make up for his poor technique. However, watching him play makes me think otherwise. There are several plays where he blatantly gives up and stops trying. He is decent in pass protection, but doesn't have the speed to pull in the run game effectively.
Grade: C+
Undrafted:
Marcus Forston - Defensive Tackle, Miami
Forston played at the 3 technique on a 4 man front for the Hurricanes. He seemed more comfortable playing as a penetrating one gap lineman versus a read react two gap lineman that the Patriots usually play. He is a little short at 6'1", but he has the weight to play as a 5 technique defensive end. He is strong against the run and adds depth the front line rotation.
Grade: A-
3. Undrafted Free Agents:
Below is a list of undrafted free agents and a few quick thoughts about them.
Lucas Nix - Offensive Guard, Pittsburgh: A mauling run blocker, so-so in pass protection. Signed with the Raiders.
James Brown - Offensive Guard, Troy: Unrefined talent with significant upside. Signed with the Bears.
DaJohn Harris - Defensive Tackle, USC: A skilled able bodied defensive tackle.
Hebron Fangupo - Nose Tackle, BYU: Stout, slow run blocker with two gap experience. Signed with the Texans.
Mark Rodgers - Running Back, Cal Poly: Small quick back with experience as a return specialist.
Dorian Graham - Wide Receiver, Syracuse: Small, fast return specialist.
Isaiah Jackson - Running Back, Central Arkansas: Return specialist.
4. AFC East Draft Grades
New York Jets:
The Jets had an up and down draft. I am in the common school of thought that defensive end/outside linebacker Quinton Coples, their first round pick, will be a bust. He openly admitted to quitting on his team in college. The Jets don't have the most stable of locker rooms right now and I see him following in Vernon Gholston's footsteps. On the other hand, Stephen Hill, a wide receiver out of Georgia Tech, looks like an absolute stud. I do not look forward to matching up against him twice a season. Their third round selection, Demario Davis, is an outside linebacker with tremendous speed, most likely due to his lighter frame. He weighs 230 lbs, which is small for his position. Outside of their top three picks, they added depth to some needed positions, including safety and running back.
Grade: B-
Miami Dolphins:
The Dolphins could have had a great draft, but because of the Ryan Tannehill pick in the first round I have to downgrade it. They were able to improve their offensive line with Jonathan Martin and got great value drafting a pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, to pair with Cameron Wake. They also got a speedy running back in Lamar Miller who seems to have a redundant skill set with Reggie Bush on the roster. However, he was good value in the fourth round.
Grade: B+
Buffalo Bills:
I thought the Bills had probably the best draft in the AFC East. I think they hit it big with their first two picks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and offensive tackle Cordy Gleen. They also added a deep threat, T.J. Graham, to pair with Stevie Johnson. Graham also has value as a return specialist. In the later rounds, they added depth to their offensive line and their defense.
Grade: A
5. Free Agents
Below is a list of non-rookie free agents who the Pats could consider targeting.
Cedric Benson - Running Back
Ryan Grant - Running Back
Yeremiah Bell - Safety
James Ihedigbo - Safety
Oshiomogho Atogwe - Safety
Andre Carter - Defensive End
6. Thoughts on the Rest of the League
After browsing the other teams' drafts, here are the teams that I think did the best overall (in no particular order).
Pittsburgh Steelers:
A team that is known for not getting very fancy on draft day, but that consistently makes good decisions. This year seems to be no different. They start out by getting the biggest steal of Day 1, David DeCastro, offensive guard from Stanford, at #24 overall. Then follow that up with another offensive lineman, Mike Adams from Ohio State. Offensive line just went from a big weakness to a solid strength on this team. In the third and fourth round, they add a linebacker, Sean Spence from Miami (FL), and a nose tackle, Alameda Ta'amu from Washington, respectively. Spence adds youth to an aging linebacking corps that is depleted due to cuts they made to get under cap. Ta'amu is a MASSIVE nose tackle who will replace Casey Hampton who is coming off a knee surgery and is 34.
Grade: A+
Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals had a lot of picks this year, thanks to good management and the Carson Palmer trade. They went out and got a lot of play makers on defense. They selected two of the players I highlighted for the Pats in the first and second round respectively, Dre Kirkpatrick (CB Alabama) and Devon Still (DT Penn State). On top of that they added a great run block guard, Kevin Zeitler from Wisconsin, in the first. They had two selections in the third, Mohamed Sanu, a wide receiver from Rutgers, and Brandon Thompson, a defensive tackle from Clemson. After losing a few pieces along the defensive line (including Jonathan Fanene to the Patriots), the Bengals add two quality players to their rotation. They replace Jonathan Joseph, who they lost last year at corner, with Kirkpatrick, who is tall, physical and shows excellent tackling. Then on the offensive side of the ball, they add a powerful guard who will be blocking for the Law Firm and a big wide receiver to line up opposite their stud, AJ Green. Finally, they get great value in selecting George Iloka, free safety out of Boise State, in the fifth to boost their secondary. He was considered a late second round/early third round pick. They addressed nearly all of their needs, with the exception of linebacker, got great value from several of their picks (Sanu and Iloka), and made very smart decision in the early rounds.
Grade: A+
Houston Texans:
The Texans had a solid draft, addressing most of their needs. They added an outstanding pass rusher in Whitney Mercilus, defensive end from Illinois, but their are concerns of him being a one year wonder. They beefed up their offensive line with Brandon Brooks from Miami (OH) and Ben Jones from Georgia, which was thin due to cuts for cap space. They added depth in the third and fourth rounds to a potent receiving corps with DeVier Posey from Ohio State and Keshawn Martin from Michigan State. Posey is a bigger receiver, who doesn't have great speed, but will benefit from having Andre Johnson on the other side of the field. Martin is a smaller possession receiver who will likely line up almost exclusively in the slot. I think their best pick was Jared Crick, defensive tackle from Nebraska, in the fourth round. He had a high second round grade and fell due to a pectoral muscle injury. The one position that could still be addressed for them is linebacker.
Grade: A-
Green Bay Packers:
Like the Steeler, the Packers are known for building through the draft. Like the Pats, the Packers went almost exclusively defense. They started things off with a player who I thought looked very similar to Chandler Jones, in USC's Nick Perry. A big defensive end in a four man front, who will now be standing up opposite Clay Matthews. In the second and fourth, they added two defensive tackles, Jerel Worthy from Michigan State and Mike Daniels from Iowa, in the hope of replacing Cullen Jenkins who they lost to the Eagles last year. Also in the second and fourth, they added depth to their secondary with defensive backs, Casey Hayward from Vanderbilt and Jerron McMillian from Maine. The Packers were last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (the Pats were right behind them at 31st). Their draft was clearly trying to remedy this. They added a monster pass rusher, boosted their defensive line with players who can collapse the pocket, and added depth to their secondary. I expect them to look for a running back among the undrafted free agents, as the running back position has become increasingly devalued and they can definitely still find a solid player.
Grade: A
Philadelphia Eagles:
Similar to the Pats and Packers, the Eagles focused mostly on defense. They traded up in the first round to select the top defensive tackle, Fletcher Cox from Mississippi St. The Eagles play in a 4-3 defense, where their defensive ends line up at the wide 9 technique. Which means they line up on the outside shoulder of the tight end. This makes them incredibly difficult to block on passing downs and they provide great pressure to the quarterback, but this strategy has a huge weakness against the run. In order to run this defense effectively, they need dominant play from their defensive tackles and linebackers. The Eagles were regularly gashed for big run plays due to their weaknesses at those positions. But thanks to free agency and drafting Cox and then Mychal Kendricks, an inside linebacker from Cal, in the second, their defense has been significantly improved. Also in the second round, they selected Vinny Curry, a defensive end from Marshall, who is considered to be one of the better pure pass rushers in the draft. Last year the Eagles led the league in sacks with 50. By adding Curry to their already potent pass rushing attack, they become a scary team to face. I think they are learning from their division rival Giants, that if you want to win in the playoffs you need to be able to rush the passer. I also liked two of their later round picks, Brandon Boykin, cornerback from Georgia, and Brandon Washington, guard from Miami (FL). Both were players I had my eye on for the Pats, but I think the key was they selected them exactly where I had them valued, in the fourth and sixth rounds, respectively. Finally, one of their key signings was an undrafted free agent Chris Polk, a running back from Washington. A second round talent who inexplicably fell out of the draft completely, he is a wrecking ball type running back who will help the Eagles with their short yardage woes from last year.
Grade: A+
The draft has officially ended. The Patriots drafted a total of seven players, one of the leanest draft classes they've had in the Belichick era. Overall, I would say the theme of their picks was versatility. Nearly every player selected has the ability to play multiple positions. Many fans are excited that the Patriots took an aggressive strategy this year addressing the teams obvious weak point, the defense. All of the picks were on the defensive side of the ball with the lone exception being their last pick, a wide receiver out of Northwestern. I would say depth along both the offensive and defensive line, safety, and return specialist are the three areas that they should address in free agency.
2. Pick By Pick Grading:
When applying these grades I'm trying to balance a few things: the skill of the player, the value of the pick, the need on the team/the fit, and what other players were available.
Round 1, Pick #21 Overall:
Chandler Jones - Defensive End, Syracuse
The Patriots traded up from #27 to select Jones, giving up their original third round pick (#93 overall). As I mentioned in the previous post, Jones looks like a great addition to the team and he fills the biggest need on the team, a pass rushing outside linebacker/defensive end when in a 3-4/4-3 respectively. He even has the size, 6'5" 265lbs, to play defensive end in a 3-3-5 nickel defense. My issue with the pick is the price and the other available players. It is exciting to know the Patriots are confident enough in him to move up to get him, but I didn't see much of a difference between him and Nick Perry who was selected #28 overall by the Packers. The third round selection was a pretty steep price to pay and I think that effected their decisions later in the draft.
Grade: B
Round 1, Pick #25 Overall:
Donta Hightower - Inside Linebacker, Alabama
Again the Patriots traded up from #31 to select Hightower, giving up their original fourth round pick (#126 overall). Contrary to Jones, I think this was a great trade. A fourth rounder to move up 6 spots in the first round is great value. Like Jones, they got a great defensive player who can dominate in the run game and get after the quarterback on third down. My major issues with the pick are the fit and Hightower's pass coverage abilities. Hightower looks very similar to Brandon Spikes, one of the young stars on the defense, including his liability in coverage. If Hightower brought something more to the table in that area, I might be higher on the pick, but looking at who else was available I would have supported trading back at this point, ideally into the late second or third with a first in next years draft.
Grade: C+
Round 2, Pick #48 Overall:
Tavon Wilson - Defensive Back, Illinois
A pick that had almost everyone following the draft say, "who?". In terms of a need and skill set, I love this pick. The value, however, I think is poor. This was the exact kind of player when I was highlighting the safety position in my Needs post. "I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage" Wilson played safety for most of his time at Illinois, but his senior year he was moved to cornerback where he regularly lined up against tight ends and slot receivers. After watching what little film is available on him he shows some promise, but I really feel like this was an overdraft because he was on practically no one elses radar. At the time the Patriots only had this pick and #62 overall. If they were having difficulty, finding a viable trade partner they may have had to take Wilson while they were here. After watching some of his tape, he seems to be decent in coverage, but has poor tackling form. He needs to learn to wrap up the ball carrier instead of just thrusting at him with his shoulder.
Grade: B-
Round 3, Pick #90 Overall:
Jake Bequette - Defensive End, Arkansas
My second favorite pick of their entire draft. I think they hit on all points: skill, value, and fit. Bequette doesn't have the flashiest tape but he is consistent and relentless. He played at both left and right defensive end in Arkansas' 4-3 defense. He is someone I see as replacing Mark Anderson's situational pass rushing position. He spent most of his time with his hand in the dirt, but I think he actually looked a little better standing up. In my opinion, he doesn't have the strength to be consistent against the run in a four lineman front, but he's at his best sprinting into the backfield.
Grade: A
Round 6, Pick #197 Overall:
Nate Ebner - Defensive Back, Ohio State
Ebner was a walk on at Ohio State who also played rugby. He predominantly played safety and contributed on special teams. He had a good relationship with former Patriot Mike Vrabel, who stressed the importance of special teams. Ebner's play on special teams and added depth to the safety position make this a good pick. The only complaint I have I think there might have been a few other players out there, particularly along the defensive line, which may have helped the team more.
Grade: B+
Round 7, Pick #224 Overall:
Alfonzo Dennard - Cornerback, Nebraska
My favorite pick in the Pats draft. Dennard is a player that has second round talent that fell this far because of an incident a week ago at a bar fight where he was arrested for assaulting a police officer. This is the ultimate low risk, high reward pick. Either he gets his act together and plays well, or he continues to be a headache and the Pats lose essentially nothing. He was never considered to be a number one corner, but instead projected to be a solid starter in the slot. Similar to wide receiver, the Pats are getting a lot of depth at corner which will inspire competition in training camp and allow them to be robust to injuries.
Grade: A+
Round 7, Pick #235 Overall:
Jeremy Ebert - Wide Receiver, Northwestern
Julian Edelmen 2.0. On a side note: I am a big fan of Edelman, not only for his play and willingness to do anything (read: play cornerback), but also for his love of Boston and the other Boston sports teams. Ebert was a high school quarterback who converted to a slot receiver in college. He is similar height and build to Wes Welker and Edelman and will likely back them up. He is the eleventh wide receiver on the team and is unlikely to make the roster this year, but learning from Welker will be a great situation for him. He provides youth to a receiving corps that is distinctly lacking in that area.
Grade: B+
Undrafted:
Brad Herman - Tight End, Iowa
A strong tight end that has some athleticism, but never was able to achieve success in college. Most likely considered to be a blocking tight end for run plays although he is a little small for that. A solid practice squad player.
Grade: B
Undrafted:
Markus Zusevics - Offensive Tackle, Iowa
A polished slightly undersized tackle (in girth not height) who would likely play guard due to his trouble against speed rushers. Zusevics doesn't have as much upside as other undrafted lineman, but he shows good technique and is known for his hard working attitude. He injured himself at the combine.
Grade: B+
Undrafted:
Jeremiah Warren - Offensive Guard, South Florida
I mentioned in the Needs post that depth at guard is necessary due to the uncertainty at the position. I thought a raw prospect that has intriguing upside would be the best target. On paper, Warren looks like that player. He is someone who used his considerable size and strength to make up for his poor technique. However, watching him play makes me think otherwise. There are several plays where he blatantly gives up and stops trying. He is decent in pass protection, but doesn't have the speed to pull in the run game effectively.
Grade: C+
Undrafted:
Marcus Forston - Defensive Tackle, Miami
Forston played at the 3 technique on a 4 man front for the Hurricanes. He seemed more comfortable playing as a penetrating one gap lineman versus a read react two gap lineman that the Patriots usually play. He is a little short at 6'1", but he has the weight to play as a 5 technique defensive end. He is strong against the run and adds depth the front line rotation.
Grade: A-
3. Undrafted Free Agents:
Below is a list of undrafted free agents and a few quick thoughts about them.
DaJohn Harris - Defensive Tackle, USC: A skilled able bodied defensive tackle.
Mark Rodgers - Running Back, Cal Poly: Small quick back with experience as a return specialist.
Dorian Graham - Wide Receiver, Syracuse: Small, fast return specialist.
Isaiah Jackson - Running Back, Central Arkansas: Return specialist.
4. AFC East Draft Grades
New York Jets:
The Jets had an up and down draft. I am in the common school of thought that defensive end/outside linebacker Quinton Coples, their first round pick, will be a bust. He openly admitted to quitting on his team in college. The Jets don't have the most stable of locker rooms right now and I see him following in Vernon Gholston's footsteps. On the other hand, Stephen Hill, a wide receiver out of Georgia Tech, looks like an absolute stud. I do not look forward to matching up against him twice a season. Their third round selection, Demario Davis, is an outside linebacker with tremendous speed, most likely due to his lighter frame. He weighs 230 lbs, which is small for his position. Outside of their top three picks, they added depth to some needed positions, including safety and running back.
Grade: B-
Miami Dolphins:
The Dolphins could have had a great draft, but because of the Ryan Tannehill pick in the first round I have to downgrade it. They were able to improve their offensive line with Jonathan Martin and got great value drafting a pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, to pair with Cameron Wake. They also got a speedy running back in Lamar Miller who seems to have a redundant skill set with Reggie Bush on the roster. However, he was good value in the fourth round.
Grade: B+
Buffalo Bills:
I thought the Bills had probably the best draft in the AFC East. I think they hit it big with their first two picks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and offensive tackle Cordy Gleen. They also added a deep threat, T.J. Graham, to pair with Stevie Johnson. Graham also has value as a return specialist. In the later rounds, they added depth to their offensive line and their defense.
Grade: A
5. Free Agents
Below is a list of non-rookie free agents who the Pats could consider targeting.
Cedric Benson - Running Back
Ryan Grant - Running Back
Yeremiah Bell - Safety
James Ihedigbo - Safety
Oshiomogho Atogwe - Safety
Andre Carter - Defensive End
6. Thoughts on the Rest of the League
After browsing the other teams' drafts, here are the teams that I think did the best overall (in no particular order).
Pittsburgh Steelers:
A team that is known for not getting very fancy on draft day, but that consistently makes good decisions. This year seems to be no different. They start out by getting the biggest steal of Day 1, David DeCastro, offensive guard from Stanford, at #24 overall. Then follow that up with another offensive lineman, Mike Adams from Ohio State. Offensive line just went from a big weakness to a solid strength on this team. In the third and fourth round, they add a linebacker, Sean Spence from Miami (FL), and a nose tackle, Alameda Ta'amu from Washington, respectively. Spence adds youth to an aging linebacking corps that is depleted due to cuts they made to get under cap. Ta'amu is a MASSIVE nose tackle who will replace Casey Hampton who is coming off a knee surgery and is 34.
Grade: A+
Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals had a lot of picks this year, thanks to good management and the Carson Palmer trade. They went out and got a lot of play makers on defense. They selected two of the players I highlighted for the Pats in the first and second round respectively, Dre Kirkpatrick (CB Alabama) and Devon Still (DT Penn State). On top of that they added a great run block guard, Kevin Zeitler from Wisconsin, in the first. They had two selections in the third, Mohamed Sanu, a wide receiver from Rutgers, and Brandon Thompson, a defensive tackle from Clemson. After losing a few pieces along the defensive line (including Jonathan Fanene to the Patriots), the Bengals add two quality players to their rotation. They replace Jonathan Joseph, who they lost last year at corner, with Kirkpatrick, who is tall, physical and shows excellent tackling. Then on the offensive side of the ball, they add a powerful guard who will be blocking for the Law Firm and a big wide receiver to line up opposite their stud, AJ Green. Finally, they get great value in selecting George Iloka, free safety out of Boise State, in the fifth to boost their secondary. He was considered a late second round/early third round pick. They addressed nearly all of their needs, with the exception of linebacker, got great value from several of their picks (Sanu and Iloka), and made very smart decision in the early rounds.
Grade: A+
Houston Texans:
The Texans had a solid draft, addressing most of their needs. They added an outstanding pass rusher in Whitney Mercilus, defensive end from Illinois, but their are concerns of him being a one year wonder. They beefed up their offensive line with Brandon Brooks from Miami (OH) and Ben Jones from Georgia, which was thin due to cuts for cap space. They added depth in the third and fourth rounds to a potent receiving corps with DeVier Posey from Ohio State and Keshawn Martin from Michigan State. Posey is a bigger receiver, who doesn't have great speed, but will benefit from having Andre Johnson on the other side of the field. Martin is a smaller possession receiver who will likely line up almost exclusively in the slot. I think their best pick was Jared Crick, defensive tackle from Nebraska, in the fourth round. He had a high second round grade and fell due to a pectoral muscle injury. The one position that could still be addressed for them is linebacker.
Grade: A-
Green Bay Packers:
Like the Steeler, the Packers are known for building through the draft. Like the Pats, the Packers went almost exclusively defense. They started things off with a player who I thought looked very similar to Chandler Jones, in USC's Nick Perry. A big defensive end in a four man front, who will now be standing up opposite Clay Matthews. In the second and fourth, they added two defensive tackles, Jerel Worthy from Michigan State and Mike Daniels from Iowa, in the hope of replacing Cullen Jenkins who they lost to the Eagles last year. Also in the second and fourth, they added depth to their secondary with defensive backs, Casey Hayward from Vanderbilt and Jerron McMillian from Maine. The Packers were last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (the Pats were right behind them at 31st). Their draft was clearly trying to remedy this. They added a monster pass rusher, boosted their defensive line with players who can collapse the pocket, and added depth to their secondary. I expect them to look for a running back among the undrafted free agents, as the running back position has become increasingly devalued and they can definitely still find a solid player.
Grade: A
Philadelphia Eagles:
Similar to the Pats and Packers, the Eagles focused mostly on defense. They traded up in the first round to select the top defensive tackle, Fletcher Cox from Mississippi St. The Eagles play in a 4-3 defense, where their defensive ends line up at the wide 9 technique. Which means they line up on the outside shoulder of the tight end. This makes them incredibly difficult to block on passing downs and they provide great pressure to the quarterback, but this strategy has a huge weakness against the run. In order to run this defense effectively, they need dominant play from their defensive tackles and linebackers. The Eagles were regularly gashed for big run plays due to their weaknesses at those positions. But thanks to free agency and drafting Cox and then Mychal Kendricks, an inside linebacker from Cal, in the second, their defense has been significantly improved. Also in the second round, they selected Vinny Curry, a defensive end from Marshall, who is considered to be one of the better pure pass rushers in the draft. Last year the Eagles led the league in sacks with 50. By adding Curry to their already potent pass rushing attack, they become a scary team to face. I think they are learning from their division rival Giants, that if you want to win in the playoffs you need to be able to rush the passer. I also liked two of their later round picks, Brandon Boykin, cornerback from Georgia, and Brandon Washington, guard from Miami (FL). Both were players I had my eye on for the Pats, but I think the key was they selected them exactly where I had them valued, in the fourth and sixth rounds, respectively. Finally, one of their key signings was an undrafted free agent Chris Polk, a running back from Washington. A second round talent who inexplicably fell out of the draft completely, he is a wrecking ball type running back who will help the Eagles with their short yardage woes from last year.
Grade: A+
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thoughts on the First Round and the Rest of the Draft
There are a few things I want to touch on particularly because I was not able to finish my prospects posts.
1. I have one word to describe the Pats draft so far: confusing. Not to be mistaken with surprising. Belichick is known for throwing a curveball come draft day, but it is a curveball that is usually risk averse and conservative. The Pats wildly deviated from the typical draft strategy in several ways.
- They drafted a pass rusher in the first round.
- They used both of their first round selections.
- They traded up TWICE.
- They addressed a position that might be the deepest on the roster (ILB).
Just confusing.
2. Pick #21: Chandler Jones DE/OLB - Syracuse, Grade: B
Jones struck me as second round player, but had gotten a lot of buzz this week. He's a big guy that brings versatility, a quality the Patriots covet. He is able to play defensive end in a four man front, outside linebacker in a three man front, and in nickel packages on third down could even play defensive end in a three man front. Watching his film, he provides a decent pass rush and smarts, but seems like a liability in the run game. I gave the selection a B because although he definitely fits a need and looks like a solid player, the pick seemed high, they gave up a third round selection to move up, and other similar players (Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw) were available at the Pats original selection, #27.
3. Pick #25: Donta Hightower ILB/OLB - Alabama, Grade: C+
I do not understand this selection. Hightower looks like a great player, true. An excellent run stopping thumper for first and second down. But he reminds me of Brandon Spikes, a run stopper who can blitz the A gap, but is weak in coverage. Spikes, who the Patriots used a second round pick on in 2010, still has two years on his contract. In a 3-4, the Patriots have Spikes and Jerod Mayo, their leader and second best player, at inside linebacker. Mayo is also one of the few players signed past 2013. In the Needs posts I posted before the draft, I mentioned that inside linebacker was the only position on defense that didn't need anything. You can't even claim they were just selecting the best player available because they traded UP to get him. This pick doesn't get an F for two reasons: first, watching Hightower's tape he was exceptional at stopping the run and was able to line up at outside linebacker on third down to rush the passer, and second, because it prevented him from going to the Raven's where I think he would have fit perfectly and wreaked havoc. (Hence why they immediately traded down afterwards).
4. AFC East Grades:
Miami Dolphins: #8 Overall: Ryan Tannehill QB - Texas A&M, Grade: D
Buffalo Bills: #10 Overall: Stephon Gillmore CB - South Carolina, Grade: A
NY Jets: #16 Overall: Quentin Coples DE - North Carolina, Grade: C-
A consolation for the Pats sub-par draft, the AFC East in general didn't do very well. The Dolphins picked who everyone thought they would, in Tannehill and the Jets took Coples both have bust written all over them. The Bills, however, selected a solid cornerback to help their woeful secondary.
5. Rest of the Draft:
Overall, it seems the Pats are coveting versatility. Jones can play end or outside and Hightower can move inside or outside for either front. Projecting that to the rest of the draft I would hope for a hybrid defensive tackle/end and a safety/corner. As they currently stand, the Pats have two selections in the second round and that is it. I would hope they trade down with at least one of them as I think they have more holes to fill than just two and although they are always very active in the undrafted free agent market, there are still several viable prospects.
6. Prospects:
Speaking of prospects here are several that I still have my eye on:
Devon Still, DT - Penn State (2nd)
Jerel Worthy, DT - Michigan State (2nd)
Josh Chapman, DT - Alabama (3rd)
Billy Winn, DE - Boise State (3rd)
Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS - Montana (2nd)
Josh Robinson, CB - Central Florida (2nd)
Brandon Boykin, CB/KR - Georgia (2nd)
George Iloka, FS - Boise State (3rd)
Brandon Hardin, FS - Oregon State (5th)
Senio Kelemete, G - Washington (4th)
James Brown, G - Troy (4th)
Brandon Washington, G - Miami (FL) (5th)
Chris Owusu, WR/KR - Stanford (4th)
Joe Adams, WR/KR - Arkansas (4th)
1. I have one word to describe the Pats draft so far: confusing. Not to be mistaken with surprising. Belichick is known for throwing a curveball come draft day, but it is a curveball that is usually risk averse and conservative. The Pats wildly deviated from the typical draft strategy in several ways.
- They drafted a pass rusher in the first round.
- They used both of their first round selections.
- They traded up TWICE.
- They addressed a position that might be the deepest on the roster (ILB).
Just confusing.
2. Pick #21: Chandler Jones DE/OLB - Syracuse, Grade: B
Jones struck me as second round player, but had gotten a lot of buzz this week. He's a big guy that brings versatility, a quality the Patriots covet. He is able to play defensive end in a four man front, outside linebacker in a three man front, and in nickel packages on third down could even play defensive end in a three man front. Watching his film, he provides a decent pass rush and smarts, but seems like a liability in the run game. I gave the selection a B because although he definitely fits a need and looks like a solid player, the pick seemed high, they gave up a third round selection to move up, and other similar players (Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw) were available at the Pats original selection, #27.
3. Pick #25: Donta Hightower ILB/OLB - Alabama, Grade: C+
I do not understand this selection. Hightower looks like a great player, true. An excellent run stopping thumper for first and second down. But he reminds me of Brandon Spikes, a run stopper who can blitz the A gap, but is weak in coverage. Spikes, who the Patriots used a second round pick on in 2010, still has two years on his contract. In a 3-4, the Patriots have Spikes and Jerod Mayo, their leader and second best player, at inside linebacker. Mayo is also one of the few players signed past 2013. In the Needs posts I posted before the draft, I mentioned that inside linebacker was the only position on defense that didn't need anything. You can't even claim they were just selecting the best player available because they traded UP to get him. This pick doesn't get an F for two reasons: first, watching Hightower's tape he was exceptional at stopping the run and was able to line up at outside linebacker on third down to rush the passer, and second, because it prevented him from going to the Raven's where I think he would have fit perfectly and wreaked havoc. (Hence why they immediately traded down afterwards).
4. AFC East Grades:
Miami Dolphins: #8 Overall: Ryan Tannehill QB - Texas A&M, Grade: D
Buffalo Bills: #10 Overall: Stephon Gillmore CB - South Carolina, Grade: A
NY Jets: #16 Overall: Quentin Coples DE - North Carolina, Grade: C-
A consolation for the Pats sub-par draft, the AFC East in general didn't do very well. The Dolphins picked who everyone thought they would, in Tannehill and the Jets took Coples both have bust written all over them. The Bills, however, selected a solid cornerback to help their woeful secondary.
5. Rest of the Draft:
Overall, it seems the Pats are coveting versatility. Jones can play end or outside and Hightower can move inside or outside for either front. Projecting that to the rest of the draft I would hope for a hybrid defensive tackle/end and a safety/corner. As they currently stand, the Pats have two selections in the second round and that is it. I would hope they trade down with at least one of them as I think they have more holes to fill than just two and although they are always very active in the undrafted free agent market, there are still several viable prospects.
6. Prospects:
Speaking of prospects here are several that I still have my eye on:
Devon Still, DT - Penn State (2nd)
Jerel Worthy, DT - Michigan State (2nd)
Josh Chapman, DT - Alabama (3rd)
Billy Winn, DE - Boise State (3rd)
Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS - Montana (2nd)
Josh Robinson, CB - Central Florida (2nd)
Brandon Boykin, CB/KR - Georgia (2nd)
George Iloka, FS - Boise State (3rd)
Brandon Hardin, FS - Oregon State (5th)
Senio Kelemete, G - Washington (4th)
James Brown, G - Troy (4th)
Brandon Washington, G - Miami (FL) (5th)
Chris Owusu, WR/KR - Stanford (4th)
Joe Adams, WR/KR - Arkansas (4th)
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Dan Koppen Signing and Matt Light Retiring
I added the new contract information for Dan Koppen to the salary cap page. While his cap hit looks large ($2.7 mil - 10th on the team), a vast majority of the salary comes from non-guaranteed incentives; and it is probable that his actual cap hit will be significantly less. For more information here is the link to ESPN.
Also, according to Mike Florio at ProFootball Talk, Matt Light will be retiring. The announcement is not official so I will keep him on the roster for now. If he does retire, New England would open up $3.5M in cap space.
EDIT: According to Spotrac, Matt Light's buyout is only costing the team $1.5M and therefore saves the team $5M in cap space.
Also, according to Mike Florio at ProFootball Talk, Matt Light will be retiring. The announcement is not official so I will keep him on the roster for now. If he does retire, New England would open up $3.5M in cap space.
EDIT: According to Spotrac, Matt Light's buyout is only costing the team $1.5M and therefore saves the team $5M in cap space.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Thoughts About Rookie Wage Scale and Salary Cap
Not too surprisingly, in the process of making the table on the Salary Cap page, I learned a lot about how the salary cap works. In particular, there were a few things that changed with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The most substantial being that only the top 51 salaries count towards the cap. If you notice at the bottom of the table I made, there are two totals. The first is the sum of all of the salaries and the second is the sum of the top 51 that actually count towards the cap. I have been thinking about this for a while and thought this would cause an incentive to the team to pay the players at the bottom of the roster all approximately the same amount. I don't have evidence to support this, but I am going to look into this further later.
The focus of almost all my posts so far have been about the draft and this one is no different. Another part of the new CBA is a revised rookie wage scale. This exists mostly to lower the massive risks that are associated with picking in the top of the first round; making those picks incredibly valuable, case in point the Redskins trade for the number 2 overall pick. Right now the 51st salary that counts is Tiquan Underwood at $615k. Therefore, anyone signed with a cap hit smaller than $615k this year does NOT count towards the cap at all! (unless they are cut) Comparing the salaries from last year, players selected in the middle to end of the second round all had cap hits smaller than $615k their first year and are therefore invisible to the cap. To me, this seems to greatly increase the value of low second round and high third round picks. You can get top quality talent for free in regards to the cap! This may be considered penny pinching, but for a team, and coach in particular, that emphasizes value over just skill and is known for working the draft board, this makes me think the Pats will move to get several picks at the end of the second/beginning of the third round.
The focus of almost all my posts so far have been about the draft and this one is no different. Another part of the new CBA is a revised rookie wage scale. This exists mostly to lower the massive risks that are associated with picking in the top of the first round; making those picks incredibly valuable, case in point the Redskins trade for the number 2 overall pick. Right now the 51st salary that counts is Tiquan Underwood at $615k. Therefore, anyone signed with a cap hit smaller than $615k this year does NOT count towards the cap at all! (unless they are cut) Comparing the salaries from last year, players selected in the middle to end of the second round all had cap hits smaller than $615k their first year and are therefore invisible to the cap. To me, this seems to greatly increase the value of low second round and high third round picks. You can get top quality talent for free in regards to the cap! This may be considered penny pinching, but for a team, and coach in particular, that emphasizes value over just skill and is known for working the draft board, this makes me think the Pats will move to get several picks at the end of the second/beginning of the third round.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Draft Prospect - DL Devon Still (Penn State)
Photo: Matthew O'Haren/Icon SMI
Name: Devon Still
Position: Defensive Tackle
School: Penn State
Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round
Analysis:
Devon is the ideal size for what the Pats look for in a 3-4 defensive end, 6'5" 300 lbs. He doesn't have great speed and isn't going to chase anyone down from behind, but he has a terrific first step and initial quickness. At Penn State, Devon played in a 4-3 front where he would line up as a one gap 3 technique. This would allow him to use his quick first step to penetrate into the backfield and disrupt plays. Looking at his games against Alabama and Illinois there are several occasions where he nearly sacks the quarterback on a run play. Think about that. This penetration allows him to be a 3 down player in a 3-4, he can be relied on to be stout against the run on the first two downs and penetrate on third down. He has the versatility to play end or nose tackle, if necessary. He is decent at shedding blocks when engaged face to face, but can be easily taken out of the play on trap blocks or double teams. Last year he had 55 tackles, 17.5 tackles for a loss, including 4.5 sacks, and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
Devon is the ideal size for what the Pats look for in a 3-4 defensive end, 6'5" 300 lbs. He doesn't have great speed and isn't going to chase anyone down from behind, but he has a terrific first step and initial quickness. At Penn State, Devon played in a 4-3 front where he would line up as a one gap 3 technique. This would allow him to use his quick first step to penetrate into the backfield and disrupt plays. Looking at his games against Alabama and Illinois there are several occasions where he nearly sacks the quarterback on a run play. Think about that. This penetration allows him to be a 3 down player in a 3-4, he can be relied on to be stout against the run on the first two downs and penetrate on third down. He has the versatility to play end or nose tackle, if necessary. He is decent at shedding blocks when engaged face to face, but can be easily taken out of the play on trap blocks or double teams. Last year he had 55 tackles, 17.5 tackles for a loss, including 4.5 sacks, and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Draft Prospect - CB Trumaine Johnson (Montana)
Position: Cornerback
School: Montana
Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 2nd
Analysis:
Trumaine Johnson is a big corner. He is listed somewhere between 6'2" and 6'3". Which is about the same height as Dre Kirkpatrick, but he is a good 20 lbs heavier; and it shows. In 33 games with the Grizz, Trumaine had 13 interceptions and 23 pass breakups. His 40 time was a little slow for a corner, 4.61, but that is understandable given his size and comes in within the top free safeties. He was a three sport athlete in high school and puts his leaping skills on display when making those picks. Montana frequently sent him on cornerback blitzes to pressure the quarterback and had a good success rate if he was blocked by a running back, as opposed to a tight end or tackle. Trumaine's skill allow him make the transition to free safety and would be a prime candidate to line up against an athletic tight end.
Analysis:
Trumaine Johnson is a big corner. He is listed somewhere between 6'2" and 6'3". Which is about the same height as Dre Kirkpatrick, but he is a good 20 lbs heavier; and it shows. In 33 games with the Grizz, Trumaine had 13 interceptions and 23 pass breakups. His 40 time was a little slow for a corner, 4.61, but that is understandable given his size and comes in within the top free safeties. He was a three sport athlete in high school and puts his leaping skills on display when making those picks. Montana frequently sent him on cornerback blitzes to pressure the quarterback and had a good success rate if he was blocked by a running back, as opposed to a tight end or tackle. Trumaine's skill allow him make the transition to free safety and would be a prime candidate to line up against an athletic tight end.
Draft Prospect - CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Name: Dre Kirkpatrick
Position: Cornerback
School: Alabama
Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round, 27th overall
Analysis:
Kirkpatrick was a starter on Alabama's historically great defense. His combination of size and speed at the corner position are outstanding. He is able to play man with bump and run coverage or drop into a zone and read the quaterback. He can be brought in to blitz and is excellent at shedding blocking receivers to contribute in the run game. He is not a ball hawk, but defends passes well and can use his size to poke the ball away. The thing that sticks out to me when I watch him play is he is completely unafraid to hit. There are several plays, one in particular against Arkansas comes to mind, where he just flies to the ball carrier and lays him out. His tackling form isn't outstanding and on the very next play he gets completely blocked out of the play, but I think those are exceptions and necessarily the norm. In my previous posts about looking at the roster as it currently stands I mentioned a cornerback that could play free safety and most importantly could cover/play man; I think if Kirkpatrick could add some bulk he is exactly who I envision.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Updated Salary Cap Info
I added Bobby Carpenter's $775,000/1 year contract to the salary cap page. Based on his salary, he is projected to be a solid special teams contributor and will compete with the likes of Fletcher and White to back up Spikes and Mayo.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Draft Prospects Posts
Leading up to the draft, I will be posting about draft prospects. What I will discuss are the pros and cons of each player and when I think the Pats should draft him. I will not speculate whether or not the prospect will be available at the spot I suggest and I (typically) will not be saying which specific pick they should use, as I expect the Patriots to stick to their strategy of trading picks into future drafts to maximize value. I will be focusing mostly on the four positions I highlighted in my previous posts: OLB, S/CB, DL, G/T.
Needs By Position - Part 3/2
Ok, so I quickly wanted add special teams.
Zoltan Mesko
Need - None
Mesko is a young left-footed punter who may not be Andy Lee, but he is able to get consistently good hangtime.
Special Teams:
Place Kicker:
Players Under Contract:
Stephen Gostkowski
Need - None
Gostkowski is an accurate kicker who was able to consistently get touchbacks even before the NFL moved the kickoff spot.
Punter:
Players Under Contract:Zoltan Mesko
Need - None
Mesko is a young left-footed punter who may not be Andy Lee, but he is able to get consistently good hangtime.
Long Snapper:
Players Under Contract:
Danny Aiken
Need - None
After losing Lonie Paxton to the Broncos a few years ago, it took a while for the Pats to find a decent long snapper, but they found one in 2010 in Danny Aiken.
Punt Returner:
Players Under Contract:
Julian Edelman, Wes Welker
Need - Minor
Edelman returned most of the punts and did an adequate job. He returned one for a touchdown against the Chiefs and averaged about 10 yards a return, which is just about league average. An improvement is possible, but not necessary.
Kick Returner:
Players Under Contract:
Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Stevan Ridley
Need - Starter
The large number of players tried at this position is an indication to how poorly the Pats returned last year. They ranked 29th in average yards returned and lacked an explosive player that was elusive enough to make tacklers miss. I mentioned this position in combination with several other positions (RB, WR, CB), but I felt it warranted its own section because I think it is a significant need.
Special Teams Overall:
With the exception of kick returner, the Pats are fine. But I hope they are able to address that position in the draft.
Needs By Position - Part 2/2
This is the second installment looking at the current players under contract and how they apply to the draft and free agency.
Defense:
Defensive Tackle:
Players Under Contract:
Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Marcus Harrison
Need - Depth
You can never have too many lineman, offensive or defensive. The Pats defensive line, whether it is a 40 or 30 front is anchored by Vince Wilfork. The man is a freak of nature. Kyle Love is a promising young undrafted free agent going on his third year. In 2010, Love's rookie season, when the Pats were having issues at defensive end, they moved Wilfork over and entrusted the nose to Love. Brace has been a disappointment so far and injuries have limited Pryor's development. Harrison seems to be someone with a legitimate chance to compete for a roster spot, particularly Brace's. Ultimately, if the Pats plan to be in a 3-4 defense for most of the time, the NT position is fairly solid. But with what they showed last season and their tendency to switch between 3 and 4 man fronts, another high caliber player is desired, particularly if they can play defensive end.
Defensive End:
Players Under Contract:
Jonathan Fanene, Brandon Deaderick, Christian Cox, Aaron Lavaris
Need - Starter
I made this list with the expectation with the assumption the Pats will be in a 3-4 defense because a 3-4 DE is very different from a 4-3 DE. Defensive end is one of the thinner positions on the team. Fanene, the former Cincinnati Bengal, is expected to be a starter. Deaderick, a seventh round draft pick in 2010, would be the other projected starter. Deaderick has proved himself worthy of roster spot, but having him starting at presumably LDE is troublesome. Furthermore, behind Fanene and Deaderick are Cox and Lavaris who will be fighting to make the practice squad. This is a position the Patriots have to address in the draft, hopefully with one of their first four picks. They have already taken a look at DT/DE Michael Brockers from LSU.
Outside Linebacker:
Players Under Contract:
Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Trevor Scott, Markell Carter
Need - Starter
The weakest position on the roster, without a doubt. Ninkovich has been compared to Vrabel, partially because he wears the same number, but he has not produced on a consistent enough basis for me to agree. The playoff game against the Broncos was possibly his best performance to date and I look forward to him starting on the strong side going forward, but who plays across from him? Jermaine Cunningham had a so-so rookie season and all but disappeared last season. Trevor Scott, the former Raider, is being paid like a starter with a one-year $1.2 m contract. Markell Carter was a sixth round selection last year who failed to make an appearance on the field, but was awarded several times for his practice squad play. Belichick has never drafted an OLB in the first round, mostly due to teams over-valuing the position, and I don't expect him to change that this year. But I do think he needs to invest at least a second round pick in a player who can start opposite Ninkovich. Also to note, the Pats are still in touch with Andre Carter, but are waiting to see how he recovers from the quad injury that ended his season early last year.
Inside Linebacker:
Players Under Contract:
Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarapinian, Niko Koutouvides, Tracy White
Need - None
The deepest defensive position, mostly because many of the players are primarily special teams players. Jerod Mayo, known as Bill Jr. and Jerod Belichick in the locker room, is frequently called the "quarterback" of the defense. He calls the defensive plays and runs the show. He may not be the fastest linebacker or the best in coverage, but he's incredibly intelligent and does everything well. This past season, particularly the playoffs, were huge for Brandon Spikes. He cemented his position as the other starting ILB and hard hitting run stopper. He is a bit of a liability in coverage, but he has improved that area as well, i.e. intercepting Flacco's pass in the AFC championship game. Fletcher and the very recently signed Bobby Carpenter provide depth behind Mayo and Spikes, while Tarapinian, Koutouvides and White are all core special teams players.
Corner Back:
Players Under Contract:
Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Marquis Cole, Bret Lockett, Malcom Williams
Need - Depth
Cornerback was an interesting position last year. Clearly, the secondary wasn't phenomenal, but it was difficult to tell whether the blame was on the cornerbacks, the lack of pass rush, or the lack of safety help. Most likely, the truth is a combination of all three. Devin McCourty took a step back last season allowing a significant number of touchdowns and long passes in his direction. Kyle Arrington wasn't too much better, but he was able to come down with seven interceptions. Ras-I Dowling is a speedy, tall cornerback who was drafted high, but had concerns about durability. He promptly got injured and put on IR for most of the season. He has the size, but not the bulk to be placed at free safety and so he is likely to stay at corner. Between those three, McCourty and Dowling project to the starters with Arrington defending the slot in nickel defenses. Moore, the savior of the AFC championship game, adds depth and competition behind them. Marquis Cole, the former Dolphin, is expected to provide depth and play special teams. While Lockett and Williams are likely training camp/practice squad players. I think the need at this position is depth because of Dowling's frailty and the issues they had at safety last season. I think a player that had the flexibility to play both corner and safety/kick return would be extremely valuable.
Safety:
Players Under Contract:
Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory, Sergio Brown, Josh Barrett, Ross Ventrone
Need - Starter
Safety, free safety in particular, is the second weakest position, slightly behind OLB. Chung is a solid strong safety, but was asked to act more as a free safety last year due to several cuts at the start of last season. Gregory was signed away from the Chargers and should provide a serviceable free safety if necessary, but should be considered more of a depth option. I am a firm believer that Sergio Brown should never take the field on defense, special teams is ok, but he is a huge liability in the passing game. He takes terrible angles and shows very poor tackling. Barrett is even further down the depth chart, coming onto the field only when Chung was out injured. Finally, Ventrone is a practice squad player, who was almost humorously released and resigned over 20 times last year! Seriously, 20! Unfortunately, the safety free agency and draft pool is small and there are quite a few teams that need safeties, including the Jets, Dolphins and Cowboys. I know Belichick typically goes for players that can do everything decently as opposed to one thing outstanding (i.e. pass rush specialists), but I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage. Obviously, tackling is important for a safety, as is speed, and size and so on, but I really think coverage should be the top priority. Also, it is important to note that the Pats have still not resigned James Ihedigbo, who started opposite Chung last season.
Defense Overall:
Unlike the offense, nearly every defensive position could use help, with the sole exception being ILB. I'm hoping that the defensive line, outside linebacker, and safety all to be addressed within the first three rounds.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Needs By Position - Part 1/2
Before I start posting about draft prospects, I wanted to start by looking at the current roster and identifying the state of each position.
Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Mike Hartline
Need: - None
Quarterback is the most secure position on the roster. With the four players under contract, the Pats have everything you could ask for at the position. An elite starter in Tom Brady, a serviceable backup that the organization clearly has confidence in based on the second round tender in Brian Hoyer, a development project that shows promise in Ryan Mallett, and a practice squad body in Mike Hartline.
Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix
Need - Slight depth
The biggest issue with the tackle position, and the whole offensive line in general, is uncertainty. Matt Light is strongly considering retirement and Sebastian Vollmer missed more than half of last season with a back injury. Behind them on the depth chart are two quality young sophomores, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. In the likely situation that Light retires, Solder can take over at LT and hopefully Vollmer starting at RT. However, that leaves Cannon as the only legitimate reserve, as Matt Kopa and Kyle Hix will likely be fighting for a practice squad spot. In the draft, I think the ideal candidate would be a later round prospect with guard/tackle flexibility that has raw skills but significant upside and then let Scarnecchia coach him up.
Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Connolly, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas
Need: - Depth
Similar to the tackle position there is uncertainty. Brian Waters is also contemplating retirement, Logan Mankins underwent ACL surgery during the offseason and Dan Koppen is still a free agent. Dan Connolly was signed to a 3 year/$10 million contract and is clearly anticipated to be a starter, the question is where? If Brian Waters, who had a Pro Bowl year at RG last season and was one of the top free agent pickups last year, foregoes retirement and stays, Connolly is the obvious start at center. But part of Connolly's value is his versatility and could be placed at RG, if Waters retires.The Robert Gallery signing was probably my favorite this offseason with the exception of Jonathan Fanene on the defensive line. He provides a BIG, strong replacement for Mankins at LG for the beginning of the season and can be a consistent back up when he returns, possibly even filling in at RT if necessary. Nick McDonald performed adamantly in his sole start at center against the Redskins last season and Donald Thomas is solely a depth/practice squad option. As I said, I think an offensive lineman with the versatility to play multiple spots and significant upside would be a solid 3rd or 4th round draft pickup.
Offense:
Quarterback:
Players Under Contract:Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Mike Hartline
Need: - None
Quarterback is the most secure position on the roster. With the four players under contract, the Pats have everything you could ask for at the position. An elite starter in Tom Brady, a serviceable backup that the organization clearly has confidence in based on the second round tender in Brian Hoyer, a development project that shows promise in Ryan Mallett, and a practice squad body in Mike Hartline.
Offensive Tackle:
Players Under Contract:Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix
Need - Slight depth
The biggest issue with the tackle position, and the whole offensive line in general, is uncertainty. Matt Light is strongly considering retirement and Sebastian Vollmer missed more than half of last season with a back injury. Behind them on the depth chart are two quality young sophomores, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. In the likely situation that Light retires, Solder can take over at LT and hopefully Vollmer starting at RT. However, that leaves Cannon as the only legitimate reserve, as Matt Kopa and Kyle Hix will likely be fighting for a practice squad spot. In the draft, I think the ideal candidate would be a later round prospect with guard/tackle flexibility that has raw skills but significant upside and then let Scarnecchia coach him up.
Offensive Guard/Center:
Players Under Contract:Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Connolly, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas
Need: - Depth
Similar to the tackle position there is uncertainty. Brian Waters is also contemplating retirement, Logan Mankins underwent ACL surgery during the offseason and Dan Koppen is still a free agent. Dan Connolly was signed to a 3 year/$10 million contract and is clearly anticipated to be a starter, the question is where? If Brian Waters, who had a Pro Bowl year at RG last season and was one of the top free agent pickups last year, foregoes retirement and stays, Connolly is the obvious start at center. But part of Connolly's value is his versatility and could be placed at RG, if Waters retires.The Robert Gallery signing was probably my favorite this offseason with the exception of Jonathan Fanene on the defensive line. He provides a BIG, strong replacement for Mankins at LG for the beginning of the season and can be a consistent back up when he returns, possibly even filling in at RT if necessary. Nick McDonald performed adamantly in his sole start at center against the Redskins last season and Donald Thomas is solely a depth/practice squad option. As I said, I think an offensive lineman with the versatility to play multiple spots and significant upside would be a solid 3rd or 4th round draft pickup.
Running Back:
Players Under Contract:
Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Eric Kettani
Need - None
I may be in the minority, but I feel like the running back position is fine. The Patriots are not a ground and pound team. I was intrigued with the idea of bringing in Michael Bush in the offseason, but since he landed with the Bears, I don't think the position needs to be addressed in free agency or the draft. Stevan Ridley showed promise with the exception of the two fumbles late last season. Danny Woodhead isn't explosive or a workhorse, but has good hands and blocking ideal for a third down back. I think the wildcard is Shane Vereen. He was drafted to be a speedy back who could get to the edge and I am interested to see what he can do. Eric Kettani is a RB/FB hybrid who can provide depth, possibly a practice squad player. The only exception to addressing RB in the draft is if the player would provide a legitimate kick return threat, i.e. Florida's Chris Rainey.
Fullback:
Players Under Contract:
Spencer Larsen, Tony Fiammetta
Need - None
A development of this offseason is the return of the fullback position to the Pats offense. Spencer Larsen signed a two year deal is expected to make the game day roster. Tony Fiammetta (and Eric Kettani to an extent) will provide training camp competition.
Tight End:
Players Under Contract:
Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells
Need - Practice Squad Body
The Patriots along with teams like the Saints, Packers, 49ers, and Chargers, have redefined the role of the tight end in recent history. The Pats have two incredibly athletic tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who can produce all over the field. But they are not without fault, Hernandez has the tendency to put the ball on the turf while scrapping for extra yards and Gronk has taken ridiculously hard hits due to his propensity to fight off would be tacklers. Depth was an issue last year, as exemplified in the Super Bowl, due to both practice squad players being snatched up by division rivals. The Pats addressed the issue by signing Daniel Fells. The former Bronco was asked to stay in and block most of the time last year, however, with limited success, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. He will likely be in for the Pats 3 TE goal line/short yardage sets, but otherwise he provides depth. The tight end position is set with the possible exception of a free agent for the practice squad, undrafted rookie or otherwise.
Wide Receiver:
Players Under Contract:
Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Anthony Gonzalez, Donte Stallworth, Tiquan Underwood, Britt Davis
Need - Development
The most polarizing position on the Pats roster, with the possible exception of a pass rushing OLB. Many fans over the offseason were screaming for the Pats to sign Mike Wallace. I was not in that camp. With the contract he would of required and Wes Welker's franchise tag, 20% of their cap space would have been devoted to the wide receiver position. That is just not good business. Brandon Lloyd, on the other hand, was possibly the biggest steal of the offseason. With Pierre Garcon getting $42.5 million/5 years, $12 m/3 years is outright criminal. This is one of several positions the Pats seem to be stock piling to develop competition during training camp. There are ten players under contract and the significant possibility of another one on the way is a lot of bodies. Historically the Pats have kept between 6 or 7 roster spots for receivers. With the addition of the fullback and having three tight ends, the number will probably be 6. Welker and Lloyd are practical locks to be starters. Slater was a special teams captain and was rewarded with a $5.4 m/3 year deal. Edelman has been Welker's backup and the main punt returner. Underwood and Davis are likely practice squad players. This leaves two spots for Branch, Ocho, Gonzalez, Stallworth, or a possible draft prospect. I am not going to speculate who will get cut here, but I will say that youth is a noticeable deficiency among the group, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Ocho, and Stallworth are all over 30. Although the Patriots have not been good at drafting wide receivers under Belichick's tenure (Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price to name a few), I think they should target a big receiver, ideally with kick return capabilities. I don't think this position should be targeted within the first two rounds, unless the value is just too good to pass up. The free agents have given Brady enough weapons for this year, but the draft is the best place to address the future. Something to note, while McDaniels was in Denver, he drafted Demaryius Thomas who has shown great speed and is developing into a very good receiver. Granted he was a first round pick, but Eric Decker also has had significant success. It might behoove BB to consult McDaniels when it comes to the position.
Offense Overall:
Overall, the offense is fairly sound. Not surprising for offense that ranked second in total yards and third in scoring. They could use depth at guard/tackle, especially due to the uncertainty at the position, and a young wide receiver who could possibly contribute in the return game.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Hello and Welcome to myPatsBlog!
My name is James and I am a New England native. I am a diehard Patriots fan and I wanted to create a place where I could share my thoughts and hopefully have conversations with other fans. My entire football experience has been from the viewpoint of a fan but I enjoy it all. Obviously starting with watching the games themselves, but even the business side, the capology and especially the Xs and Os type strategy. I don't claim to be an expert in any of these areas and so these posts will be solely my opinions that I would be more than happy to discuss in the comments. This being my first major post, I wanted to talk about what I envision this blog becoming and what I hope to achieve by writing in it.
To start, I want to describe the content that exists. As of right now there are three pages: the blog posts, the salary cap figures, and a suggestions page. The posts is where I will update regularly (I am hoping for a minimum of once a week) where I will be talking about free agent signings, draft prospects and analysis of league wide news during the offseason and focusing on upcoming opponents during the regular and postseason. The salary cap page contains a table with my estimate for the current amount of cap space that the Patriots have based mostly on news stories and similar tables on other sites. I will try and provide sources and links whenever I can. The suggestions page is exactly what it sounds like, I am new to this and would appreciate any feedback.
There are at least two other pages that I would like to eventually add once given the time to develop them. First, is a roster page that would accumulate statistics for each player on the team. Now aside from the standard statistics I would like to start to keep track of a few statistics of my own. I think people largely look at the standard statistics and think they are the only things that matter. For example, standard stats may show a wide receiver's receiving yards and touchdowns, but not how well he blocks in the run game. The position that this would affect the most in my opinion is the offensive line. Offensive linemen accumulate next to no standard statistics and make it hard to evaluate at a glance. I understand this will be a large task to undertake that may include a large amount of film watching, but I am willing to try.
Second, is a page that has analysis for the most recent game and/or a preview of the next game. I anticipate logging these pages into blog posts, but I would like them to always be available. If ever possible, this is where I'd like to get into the strategy of the game as far as my knowledge can take me. As I said before, I'm not an expert in this area and I will likely be getting my terms from Wikipedia or another blog. I frequent ESPN and BleacherReport, and I may comment on their analysis as well. I particularly like Chris Brown's (no not that Chris Brown) analysis of games and may link to them, if he happens to write about one.
Finally, my end goal for this blog is to get my ideas out there so I can share them with others. Ultimately, I don't care if what I think is right or wrong. What I seek is a discussion and a debate on these topics to enhance my knowledge and enjoy the games even more.
I have a few things lined up for this weekend, mostly focused on the draft. I am not a fan of making mock drafts because I don't know the college players or the other teams well enough, and even draft expert Todd McShay said that the hardest team to predict is the Patriots, so I'll leave that to others. What I want to focus on instead are players that I find intriguing and where I would be happy with the Patriots selecting them.
Thanks for reading and please feel free to contribute in the comments or the suggestions page!
To start, I want to describe the content that exists. As of right now there are three pages: the blog posts, the salary cap figures, and a suggestions page. The posts is where I will update regularly (I am hoping for a minimum of once a week) where I will be talking about free agent signings, draft prospects and analysis of league wide news during the offseason and focusing on upcoming opponents during the regular and postseason. The salary cap page contains a table with my estimate for the current amount of cap space that the Patriots have based mostly on news stories and similar tables on other sites. I will try and provide sources and links whenever I can. The suggestions page is exactly what it sounds like, I am new to this and would appreciate any feedback.
There are at least two other pages that I would like to eventually add once given the time to develop them. First, is a roster page that would accumulate statistics for each player on the team. Now aside from the standard statistics I would like to start to keep track of a few statistics of my own. I think people largely look at the standard statistics and think they are the only things that matter. For example, standard stats may show a wide receiver's receiving yards and touchdowns, but not how well he blocks in the run game. The position that this would affect the most in my opinion is the offensive line. Offensive linemen accumulate next to no standard statistics and make it hard to evaluate at a glance. I understand this will be a large task to undertake that may include a large amount of film watching, but I am willing to try.
Second, is a page that has analysis for the most recent game and/or a preview of the next game. I anticipate logging these pages into blog posts, but I would like them to always be available. If ever possible, this is where I'd like to get into the strategy of the game as far as my knowledge can take me. As I said before, I'm not an expert in this area and I will likely be getting my terms from Wikipedia or another blog. I frequent ESPN and BleacherReport, and I may comment on their analysis as well. I particularly like Chris Brown's (no not that Chris Brown) analysis of games and may link to them, if he happens to write about one.
Finally, my end goal for this blog is to get my ideas out there so I can share them with others. Ultimately, I don't care if what I think is right or wrong. What I seek is a discussion and a debate on these topics to enhance my knowledge and enjoy the games even more.
I have a few things lined up for this weekend, mostly focused on the draft. I am not a fan of making mock drafts because I don't know the college players or the other teams well enough, and even draft expert Todd McShay said that the hardest team to predict is the Patriots, so I'll leave that to others. What I want to focus on instead are players that I find intriguing and where I would be happy with the Patriots selecting them.
Thanks for reading and please feel free to contribute in the comments or the suggestions page!
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Posts Coming Soon
I am currently working on the other pages. I am planning my first major post for this weekend.
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