Highlighting a Play For Dont'a Hightower

Before the 2012 draft, I wrote a post pointing out that the only spot on defense that was fundamentally sound with clear starters and sufficient depth was the inside linebacker spot. Then the Patriots drafted Dont'a Hightower in the first round. Now while I didn't understand what the Patriots plan was, they clearly had one. Once training camp started, two things became apparent that I was not expecting: first, the Patriots were staying in a 4-3 base; and second, they were moving Rob Ninkovich from Sam linebacker to left defensive end. I like this move for a lot of reasons, but I would like to highlight an idea that I immediately thought of when considering this situation. Below I'm going to diagram a play, that while it is in no way revolutionary, it becomes particularly more viable and effective for the Patriots this year, with the addition of Hightower, compared to last year.

First off, the defensive personnel:
Defensive Tackles: 75, Vince Wilford (1-technique); 98, Jonathan Fanene (3-technique)
Defensive Ends: 95, Chandler Jones (9-technique); 50, Rob Ninkovich (7-technique)
Linebackers: 51, Jerod Mayo (Will); 55, Brandon Spikes (Mike); Dont'a Hightower (Sam)
Safeties: 25, Patrick Chung (Strong); 28, Steve Gregory (Free)
Cornerbacks: 21, Ras-I Dowling (Right), 32, Devin McCourty (Left)

The Green Rectangle highlights the heavy pressure the Patriots have to stop the run. Ultimately, the fullback will have to make choice, accentuated by the Orange Circles.

The initial call in the offensive huddle is a Power-O Man Blocking Run to the strong (right) side. When they line up, however, the QB sees 8 men in the box ready to defend the run. The play calls for right guard, right tackle and tight end to push Wilfork (DT, 75), Ninkovich (DE, 50), and Hightower (SLB, 45), respectively, away from the B gap; the center and left tackle to prevent the backside pursuit by Fanene (DT, 98) and Jones (DE, 95); and the left guard to pull and enter the right B gap hitting Chung (SS, 25), followed by the fullback who then has a choice (highlighted by the orange circles): take on Mayo (WLB, 51) in the backfield or Spikes (MLB, 55) in the hole. Either way one will be free to pursue the running back unblocked, along with Gregory (FS, 28) who would be conservatively approaching the hole to make the tackle in case someone misses. Overall, this play gives the advantage to the defense, as at least two men should be free to make a play on the running back.

The Dotted Red Lines represent man coverage responsibility. The Yellow Boxes indicate the advantage for the offense.

So the quarterback audibles to a pass play. In particular, one that will take advantage of the single high safety. By sending two deep routes, one of them should be in single coverage. To prevent this, Chung and Hightower (SS, 25 and SLB, 45) are double covering the tight end with inside-outside leverage, but if the tight end is quick and can get behind Chung with his speed, Gregory (FS, 28) cannot choose correctly between the tight end post route or the right wide receiver running a go. Furthermore, Dowling (CB, 21) is on an island with the left receiver in a difficult position particularly for a well timed comeback. Finally, the running back would draw man coverage from the Spikes (MLB, 55) streaking towards the sidelines where a simple check down throw could produce a large gain due to so many people back pedaling. In terms of pass protection, the fullback stays to block the blitzing Mayo (WLB, 51) leaving 6 offensive players to block 5 defensive players, with Wilfork double teamed. Seemingly, this play gives multiple advantages to the offense both in where to go with the ball and in pass protection.

The Red Boxes indicate defensive zones, the Blue Boxes indicate an good opportunity for an interception, and again the Yellow Boxes indicate an advantage for the offense.

After the snap, however, the defense backs off into a Zone Blitz with 2 Deep Shell, with Chung (SS, 25) sinking quickly to get over the right wide receiver and Gregory (FS, 28) shifting over to the left wide receiver. Now Dowling (CB, 21) can play underneath and is in great position to pick off a pass on the comeback route, and McCourty (CB, 32) will have help on the go route. Ninkovich (DE, 50) and Mayo (WLB, 51) hard step inside to get the offensive right tackle and full back to get into their pass protection set, but then back into an underneath coverage zone. Hightower (SLB, 45) comes on a blitz, ignoring the TE acting like a 9-technique defensive end rushing the passer, hopefully beating the tackle who is out of position trying to block Ninkovich (DE, 50). Spikes (MLB, 55) has to back pedal into a deep zone, similar to a Tampa-2 defense, to protect against a pass over the middle. The same 6 offensive players are blocking, but only 4 defensive players are rushing and if all goes well there will still be a (semi-)unblocked rusher, Hightower (SLB, 45).

The correct decision here is the tight end over the middle, if he can get behind Spikes (MLB, 55), the advantage goes to the offense. This play puts a lot of strain on both Spikes (MLB, 55) and Ninkovich to drop quickly and be ready for the post route. Furthermore, Chung (SS, 25) also needs to move quickly to get in position. Ninkovich (DE, 50) must also stay disciplined and tackle well against the running back going into the flat should the quarterback dump it off. He should have help from McCourty (CB, 32) as well.

The purpose of the play is to create confusion while getting more defenders dropping into coverage and still effectively applying pressure to the quarterback with Hightower (SLB, 45). While the tight end is most likely the correct decision for the quarterback, it is a difficult one to make if Hightower (SLB, 45) can get to the quarterback quickly. If thrown too quickly to the tight end, Spikes (MLB, 55) and Ninkovich (DE, 50) should be in great position to make a play. If thrown to the left wide receiver, without understanding the coverage, a pick is very likely. Finally, trying to force it into the double coverage of the right wide receiver would also be difficult.

What makes this play relevant in terms of the Patriots 2012 personnel, specifically, is that it takes advantage of Ninkovich’s good coverage skills for a defensive end (compared to say Shaun Ellis or Brandon Deaderick who would have been in that spot last year), and replaces his pass rushing skills with a relatively equal skill set in Hightower, who showed competency pass rushing in Alabama's nickel package.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: DT Kyle Love

Restricted Free Agent in 2013

Kyle Love is currently operating under an exclusive rights free agent tender, which in concept draws similarities to the franchise tag or a restricted free agent tender, but is worth significantly less, $540,000 to be precise. Under this contract, no other teams are allowed to negotiate with Love and so the Patriots are not in a rush to extend him this offseason. But I would expect him to have a deal locking him up for years to come before the end of the season.

Youth along the defensive line is a valuable commodity and Love is definitely the most promising of the Patriots several young defensive tackles. Ron Brace, a second round pick in the 2009 draft, has struggled to see the field, is on the roster bubble and, so far, has largely been considered a bust; whereas Myron Pryor, a sixth round pick in the same draft, has shown flashes of brilliance, but cannot stay healthy enough to contribute consistently.

Love started 13 of the 16 regular season games last season at defensive tackle next to Vince Wilfork. He finished with 33 total tackles and 3 sacks.

Proposed Long-Term Contract: $10.5M/4 years, $3M guaranteed
Possible Restricted Free Agent Tender: First round: $2.7M, Second Round: $1.9M

Defensive Front Seven

First I would like to preface this post with a reminder that I do not consider myself an expert on these concepts and I am attempting to summarize the many articles I have read on the subject. Furthermore, most of these statements are generalizations that do not apply to every NFL snap. The NFL, particularly defense, is all about creating confusion by adding atypical assignments to the typical personnel. Any questions or corrections can be addressed in the comments.

You frequently hear, particularly during the offseason, of team switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 or vice versa. But ultimately, there are seven players playing near the line of scrimmage, so what is the difference? Why are some players considered 4-3 defensive ends and others are 3-4 defensive ends? What is a "Sam" or "Mike" backer? I would like to answer these questions and more by going over each scheme and each position highlighting their responsibilities on both run downs and passing downs and which player on the Patriots I would consider the starter at that position. I will not go into sub packages such as nickel and dime defenses. Many of the terms in this article are explained in this post, and will be cataloged in the glossary.

Furthermore, if you are confused by my descriptions I highly recommend the following articles for further reading:

Pro Football Focus: Defensive Line, Linebackers
Bleacher Report (slightly different terminology)
Wikipedia: 3-4 & 4-3

To start off, I want to get explain some terminology with the help of the figure below. The position where a defensive lineman stands before the snap is called his "technique," the red numbers. Starting from the center and moving outward they range from 0 to 9. Typically, the size (see: weight) of the defensive player decreases as the technique increases, due to the fact the perimeter players need more speed to play in space and the center players are there to clog running lanes and occupy blockers. The offensive line gaps are shown in yellow letters and similarly start at the center and increase outwards. The weak and strong side refer to which side is the "offensive strength," i.e. which side the tight end (TE) is on.  This base offense is in a Pro-I-Weak formation; Pro, the quarterback (QB) is under center, I, there are two running backs aligned, Weak, the fullback (FB) is shifted to the offensive weak side.

The Red Numbers are the Defensive Lineman Technique. The Yellow Letters are the Offensive Line Gaps. The Circled Letters are the Offensive Positions.

3-4

A 3-4 stands for 3 down lineman, a nose tackle and two defensive ends, and 4 linebackers, two inside and two outside. In a three man front, particularly under Belichick, the defensive lineman have a two gap responsibility, i.e. the gaps on either side of the offensive lineman they are in front of. The lineman are taught to read and react, by standing up their offensive lineman, reading where the play is going, shed their blocker, and pursue the ball carrier. Furthermore, they frequently require double teams which free up the prowling linebackers to get upfield and make a play. 3-4 defensive lineman do not frequently rack up gaudy stats like sacks, but their presence is shown by making average linebackers good, and good ones great. In general, the 3-4 is built around the massive defensive lineman making the quick, athletic linebackers' lives easier.

A prefix of an R or L designates the defensive right or left side, respectively.

Nose Tackle:
Nose tackles are simply immense. Wilfork, the Patriots' starting nose tackle over the past several years, is listed as ~330 lbs, although most people agree it is probably closer to 350.

Depth Chart: Vince Wilfork (1st round, 2004), Kyle Love (undrafted, 2010), Ron Brace (2nd round, 2009)

Run Defense: In run defense, the nose tackle is the first line of defense. He uses his huge size and elite strength to take complete command of the center and control both A gaps. A team like the Jets who has an equally elite center in Nick Mangold, will often leave this a one-on-one match up, but other teams may need to add a guard to hold him back. This is the best case scenario, as 1) it closes one of the A gaps completely removing it as a running lane, and 2) it removes a potential blocker allowing linebackers to more easily pursue the ball carrier.

Pass Defense: A textbook example of what you want your nose tackle to do against the pass was last years AFC Championship game against the Ravens. That was one of Wilfork's best games of his career. The best way to disrupt a quarterback, particularly a pocket passer like Flacco, is to move him off out of the pocket. Wilfork consistently pushed the Ravens' center back into Flacco's lap which caused him to shift, either to throw on the move, or into the pressure from other defensive players.

Defensive End:
A two-gapping 3-4 defensive end is closer in size to a 4-3 defensive tackle, than a 4-3 defensive end. Like nose tackles, they are a large group of people, typically around 300 lbs, and are trying to occupy space as opposed to penetrate. Richard Seymour was the Patriots' star RDE until he was traded to the Oakland Raiders. Since then, the Patriots had trouble replacing him and I believe it was a significant reason why the Patriots switched to a 4-3 last season.

Depth Chart: Gerrard Warren (12-year veteran FA, signed 2010), Jonathan Fanene (8-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Brandon Deaderick (7th round, 2010), Justin Francis (undrafted, 2012), Myron Pryor (6th round, 2009), Marcus Harrison (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Marcus Forston (undrafted 2012)

Run Defense: "Occupy space" is the keyword in run defense. By controlling the tackle (or sometimes guard), the defensive end can read the play, shed the block and make the tackle. If not, he can force the runner to cut back, hopefully, into the linebacker ready to make the tackle.

Pass Defense: The main responsibility of a defensive end in pass defense is containment, especially against a mobile quarterback like Tebow. Typically, on passing snaps one or both of the outside linebackers will be rushing the passer, who will be blocked by an offensive tackle. The offensive guard, therefore, is in charge of blocking the defensive end. If the nose tackle can push the quarterback out of the pocket, he will end up right in the defensive end's lap. Furthermore, by staying disciplined, the defensive end can be ready for a draw play (the quarterback gives a delayed handoff to the running back).

Inside Linebacker:
Inside linebackers in a 3-4 have to be very well-rounded players. They need to do just about everything well: cover, blitz, tackle, read, and most importantly lead. Frequently, one of the inside linebackers will have a headset in his helmet connected to the defensive coordinator calling the defensive plays. For the past 4 years, Jerod Mayo has been played this role as the "quarterback of the defense".

Depth Chart: Jerod Mayo (1st round, 2008), Brandon Spikes (2nd round, 2010), Dont'a Hightower (1st round, 2012), Dane Fletcher (undrafted, 2010), Bobby Carpenter (7-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Niko Koutouvides (9-year veteran FA, signed 2011), Tracy White (10-year veteran, traded 2010), Jeff Tarpinian (undrafted, 2011), Mike Rivera (2-year veteran, signed 2011)

Run Defense: Even though inside linebackers have to do a lot, their bread and butter is run defense. They read the running back and then hit the gap hard meeting any blocker or running back hard. Vicious hitters like Ray Lewis of the Ravens and Patrick Willis of the 49ers have become NFL stars due their ability to find the hole in the offensive line and make explosive plays in the run game.

Pass Defense: While inside backers can be sent on a blitz, they typically drop into coverage. Over the past several years, Belichick has sent inside linebackers on a blitz only 10% of the time. Instead, in man coverage, they match up against running backs. Without a linebacker with good "sideline-to-sideline" speed, defenses can easily get gashed for a huge yardage on a simple dump off play to a running back running towards the sideline. In zone coverage, they are responsible for intermediate throws over the middle. Because these linebackers are so ready to attack the line of scrimmage to tackle a running back, they are frequently the most affected by play action plays, leaving the zone they are responsible for wide open.


Outside Linebacker:
Outside linebackers in a 3-4, particularly the right outside linebacker, are the teams top pass rushers. James Harrison of the Steelers, Tamba Hali of the Chiefs, and Clay Matthews of the Packers are all NFL elite pass rushers at the outside linebacker position. They are typically the tallest players on defense (6'3"-6'5") with long arms to combat offensive tackles equally long arms. They need a combination of speed to rush the passer, strength to shed blocks in the run game, and quickness to drop into coverage.

Depth Chart: Chandler Jones (1st round, 2012), Rob Ninkovich (7-year veteran FA, signed 2009), Trevor Scott (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Jake Bequette (3rd round, 2012), Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round, 2010)

Run Defense: In run support, outside linebackers will usually be blocked by a tight end whom they must jack up and shed if the run heads in their direction. If the run is to the opposite side and there is no tight end to block them (weak side outside linebacker), they use their quickness to pursue from the back side to tackle from behind, but must be careful not to be too aggressive and over pursue allowing a cut back.

Pass Defense: Pass rush. The defensive ends provide containment, the nose tackle pushs the quarterback out, and the outside linebackers get after the quarterback. Although they will frequently drop into coverage too, in 2010, when they ran a 3-4 as their base defense, Belichick sent at least one outside linebacker over 80% of the time. Now that may have been a product of their awful defense and inability to get pressure with just three lineman, but that is not against the norm, particularly in today's pass happy NFL. In zone coverage, outside linebackers are responsible for either the flat (outside short area 0-4 yards off the line of scrimmage) or the outside intermediate area (5-12 yards off the line of scrimmage). Whereas, they typically are asked to cover tight ends in man coverage.

4-3

A 4-3 stands for 4 down lineman, two defensive tackles and two defensive ends, and 3 linebackers, the Mike, Sam, and Will linebackers. In a four man front, the defensive lineman have a one gap responsibility. This is a slightly more aggressive approach as it typically sends all four lineman through a specified gap attempting to penetrate to disrupt running plays or get pressure on the quarterback, imposing the defenses will on the offense, as opposed to reacting to it. Also, the line is less symmetric with respect to the offensive formation compared to the 3-4.

Again, a prefix of an R or L designates the defensive right or left side, respectively.

Defensive Tackle:
Like the interior lineman in a 3-4, 4-3 defensive tackles are typically around 300 lbs. But instead of standing up their offensive lineman and shedding their blocks after reading the play, they instead rely on their quick first step to create a sudden burst past their lineman. The defensive tackles play as a 1- and a 3- technique, responsible for an A and a B gap, respectively. The best lineman have a wide variety of tactics to win their one-on-one battles, including the swim, just as it sounds swinging the arms like the forward stroke to get behind the offensive lineman, the bull rush, getting under the opponents pads and rocking him back onto his heels then pushing him backwards, or the spin move, catching the lineman leaning and then spinning past him into the backfield.

Depth Chart: Vince Wilfork (1st round, 2004), Kyle Love (undrafted, 2010), Jonathan Fanene (8-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Brandon Deaderick (7th round, 2010), Ron Brace (2nd round, 2009), Myron Pryor (6th round, 2009), Gerrard Warren (12-year veteran FA, signed 2010), Marcus Forston (undrafted 2012), Marcus Harrison (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012)

Run/Pass Defense: For defensive tackles, the goal is usually the same regardless of a run or a pass play: get into the backfield and disrupt the play. In general, these defensive lineman have fewer reads of the offense and instead try impose their strengths to make the offense react. There are wrinkles, such as stunts where two lineman switch gaps after the snap trying to confuse the offensive lineman or a tackle dropping into a shallow zone coverage, but ultimately tackles try to get in the backfield and cause problems.


Defensive End:
4-3 defensive ends are slightly leaner than their 3-4 counterparts, between 260 and 280 lbs. They too focus mostly on getting behind their respective lineman utilizing many of the same moves. The spin move was practically patented by pass rushing extraordinaire Dwight Freeney of the Indianapolis Colts. The defensive ends play as a 7- and a 9- technique, responsible for either both C gaps, or a C and a D gap, respectively.

Depth Chart: Chandler Jones (1st round, 2012), Rob Ninkovich (7-year veteran FA, signed 2009), Jake Bequette (3rd round, 2012), Trevor Scott (5-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round, 2010), Justin Francis (undrafted, 2012)

Run/Pass Defense: Similarly to defensive tackles, defensive ends' mantra is get into the backfield to apply pressure. In the run game, they are responsible for containment to prevent outside runs. In the passing game, these are the teams top pass rushers, similar to the OLB in a 3-4. Some defenses, such as the Philadelphia Eagles have both of their defensive ends as 9-techniques, which makes them incredibly difficult to block on passing downs, but creates larger gaps in the run game which puts stress on the outside linebackers. Not surprisingly, the Eagles were tied for the league lead in sacks.

Weakside (WILL) Linebacker:
The Will backer is the coverage coverage backer. The smallest of the three linebackers, he is the most likely to drop into man or zone and use his speed to track down running backs in the open space or step in front of shifty slot receivers.

Depth Chart: Jerod Mayo (1st round, 2008), Tracy White (10-year veteran, traded 2010), Mike Rivera (2-year veteran, signed 2011)

Run Defense: In gap assignment, the Will will be in charge of the weak-side B gap, but can also go over the top of the defense if the run is to the opposite side. As always, over pursuit over the top can be dangerous as a cut back to the now undefended gap can lead to big plays.

Pass Defense: The Will backer is the most free range in coverage. His speed is his greatest asset. Due to the tight end being on the opposite side of the formation, the Will usually is in charge of the running back or full back in man coverage, while protecting the middle of the field in zone. The Will may also have the freedom to rush the passer from a variety of places, although Belichick prefers him to stay in coverage. He sent Jerod Mayo, the start Will backer in 2011, on pass rushing snaps only 11% of the time despite having significant success when he was sent.


Middle (MIKE) Linebacker:
The Mike backer is a "thumper." The run stopper. The guy that loves to hit hard.

Depth Chart: Brandon Spikes (2nd round, 2010), Dane Fletcher (undrafted, 2010), Jeff Tarpinian (undrafted, 2011)

Run Defense: In gap assignment, the Mike backer gets the strong-side A gap. He is ready to get "downhill" and shoot into the backfield, knock off a blocker, and make a tackle on inside runs.

Pass Defense: In standard zone defense, like a Cover 2, the Mike backer covers the intermediate routes over the middle of the field. However, in the Tampa-2, there is significant more strain on the Mike to drop quickly into a much deeper zone to prevent the seam route (a route Gronkowski lives off of) that is able to defeat the Cover 2 if run properly. In man coverage, it is more common for the Mike to cover either the running back or full back. The Mike blitz was also rarely used last year, ~15% of the time.


Strongside (SAM) Linebacker:
The Sam is the pass rusher of the three. The largest and best equipped to take on offensive tackles or pass blocking tight ends, the Sam backer will use a combination of power and speed to get after the quarterback. He will also typically be the closest to the line of scrimmage.

Depth Chart: Dont'a Hightower (1st round, 2012), Bobby Carpenter (7-year veteran FA, signed 2012), Niko Koutouvides (9-year veteran FA, signed 2011)

Run Defense: In gap assignment, the Sam will get the strong side C or D gap depending on whichever one the defensive end doesn't hit.

Pass Defense: In man coverage, the Sam backer will often cover the tight end; whereas in zone he will cover outside short-intermediate routes. But most frequently, particularly under Belichick, the Sam will go after the quarterback. Rob Ninkovich, the starting Sam backer in 2011, rushed the passer 64% of passing plays.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: WR/PR Julian Edelman

 Source: Nick Laham/Getty Images North America

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013


I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating, Julian Edelman has been one of my favorite Patriots players for a few reasons. To start, he embodies the "do your job" mantra of Belichick, no more evident than this past year when he channeled his inner Troy Brown and made significant contributions in all three phases of the game: offense (wide receiver), defense (slot cornerback), and special teams (punt returner). But what really does it for me, is his complete immersion into the other Boston sports. ESPNBoston's Patriots page has a twitter feed with several players, including Edelman, and I am always pleasantly surprised with how genuinely interested he is the other teams.

Now his love of the other Boston sports teams has absolutely nothing to do with his contract situation, but his embodiment of Belichick's mantra does. Edelman has not particularly impressed as a receiver, 11 receptions for 120 yards over the past two years, after his promising rookie season, 37 receptions for 359 yards. This is mostly due to two factors: he is backing up the best slot receiver in football, Wes Welker, who has shown to be incredibly durable considering the vicious hits he takes in the middle of the field; and after his rookie season the Patriots drafted two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, whose significant play in the slot have limited Edelman's ability to get on the field. This past season he only played 13.3% of the offensive snaps, according to Mike Reiss of ESPN. Even though his statistics are not impressive, Welker's contract situation is still up in the air and it is definitely beneficial having someone on the team who Brady trusts and has shown he can step into Welker's shoes and fill them out nicely (see playoff game versus the Ravens in 2009).

Edelman took over returning punts from Welker in 2010 and since then he has been slightly above average; he ranked 13th in the league this past season with an average of 10.3 yards per return, and took one to the house against Kansas City. He doesn't make special teams units afraid like Devin Hester, but he is a solid contributor.

Finally, if all goes well Edelman should never take another snap on defense. Even after Troy Brown's impressive stint at defensive back in the 2004 championship season, he was not called upon again. Still this does add to his value slightly in that it proves he is a team player and, although this sounds cliche, he is a "football player." By that I mean he loves the game and will do anything that is asked of him, a trait the Patriots covet.

Proposed Contract: $3.7M/3 years, $800k guaranteed
This contract is fairly similar to the one just offered to Matthew Slater. Slater's is a bit higher, but I gave him that nod as he is the captain of the special teams unit and is one of the best special teams coverage players in the NFL (3rd in special teams tackles). Edelman does many things above average, but nothing outstanding. He is not irreplaceable, but he provides definite value, including leverage against Welker. This is cap friendly deal for the Patriots as his cap hit is never larger than $1.4M, yet Edelman makes more than twice what he has over the past four years.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB/S Sterling Moore

AP Photo/Winslow Townson

Exclusive Rights Free Agent in 2013


Sterling Moore is most well known among Patriots fans for his controversial, yet spectacular, play in the endzone against Lee Evans at the end of the AFC Championship game. It is difficult to evaluate Sterling Moore's play because he wasn't on the field much for the Patriots. Due to the multiple injuries in the defensive backfield last year, the Patriots were constantly shuffling people around, particularly at safety. Sterling, along with Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater, and Sergio Brown all took snaps at Chung's FS spot, while Antwan Molden, Julian Edelman, and Sterling again took over the corner position several time. Moore really started to come into favor towards the end of the season and in the playoffs. He had 8 passes defended, including 2 interceptions, in the last 4 games (including 3 playoff games).

He does not have great size, 5'10", and is best suited in the slot backing up Arrington with the flexibility to play safety. Moore is not a lock to make the roster and needs to continue to produce on the field to stick around, but he has shown promise and he is a young player who the Patriots can keep for little to no financial risk.

Exclusive Rights Tender: $555k

Proposed Contract: $1.9M/2 years, $500k guaranteed, $1M in escalators
If Sterling is able to stay on the team this upcoming season, he is almost guaranteed to receive the exclusive rights tender. The question is whether or not he receives an extension before the start of the 2013 season, or if he plays under the tender and becomes a restricted free agent for 2014. I based this proposed contract almost exclusively on the one Kyle Arrington signed before the 2010 season, as I see many similarities in their situation.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB Kyle Arrington

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013
Kyle Arrington is in an interesting place from a contract perspective. On the one hand, he was one of the few bright spots in New England's secondary this past season. He was a sure tackler, placing second on the team in total tackles with 88, including 66 solo, and was 9th best among all defensive backs in broken tackle rate (source,  Patrick Chung was 7th). He was the teams best pass defender, leading the league with 7 interceptions and the team with 15 passes defended. 


On the other hand, coming into the season Arrington was expected to be fourth on the Patriots depth chart at cornerback behind Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, and Ras-I Dowling. Unfortunately, due to the regressed play from Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden being cut, and the season ending injury to Ras-I Dowling, Arrington was forced into a starting role in the secondary. While he performed adequately this past season, he has not done it consistently. He was a significant liability two years ago, and if Ras-I Dowling comes back healthy this year, he is likely to usurp Arrington as the starter.


This then leads to the question, do the Patriots pay him starter money or not. The Patriots tend to be particularly frugal at the cornerback position; and as last year showed they're not afraid give significant reps to players from the scrap heap or even offense. (see: Antwan Molden, Sterling Moore, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater) Arrington fits better in the slot as his smaller size (5'10") can be a liability against bigger receivers. Alfonzo Dennard, a 7th round draft pick, has the skills to compete for the starting slot job, but will likely be expected to add depth instead.


Finally, not to be disregarded Arrington is a consistent and solid contributor on special teams.


Proposed New Contract: $6.5M/2 years, $2M guaranteed, $1.5M in escalators
To quickly clarify this contract, I imagine Arrington receiving a $2M signing bonus (the guaranteed amount), a $2M base salary in 2013 and $2.5M in 2014, with the possibility of both of those salary numbers increasing (the $1.5M in escalators) based on incentives such as play time, being voted to the Pro Bowl, and/or getting a certain number of interceptions.

Ultimately, the value of this contract and whether Arrington signs it is going to depend heavily on two things: his play this upcoming season, and Ras-I Dowling's health. If the Ras-I Dowling stays healthy and plays well,  I would not be surprised to see Kyle Arrington walk in free agency. I think the Patriots would have more leverage in that situation and they would try to get away with underpaying him. They have replacement options in Alfonzo Dennard and Sterling Moore and can address his leaving in free agency or the draft.

However, if Dowling continues to have health issues and/or Moore and Dennard are unable to contribute, the Patriots may have to sweeten the deal to keep him around.

New Page: Glossary

I've come to the realization that it might be helpful to have a glossary of phrases that I frequently use on this blog. This off-season I have been using a broad vocabulary related to contracts that are definitely not layman terms, so I will do my best to keep the glossary updated. I will continue to add to it terms that I think are not considered general knowledge. As usual, any input on which terms I should elaborate on would be appreciated.

What is the Difference Between a Restricted and an Unrestricted Free Agent?

I wanted to take a break from fabricating contracts to explain what the difference is between a restricted and an unrestricted free agent, particularly how it applies to contract negotiations. I'll also mention some other possible contract situations, such as, exclusive rights free agents and the franchise tag.

Unrestricted Free Agent:

An unrestricted free agent is, just as it sounds, unrestricted. They are able to sign with anyone and the previous team has no leverage. The vast majority of free agents are unrestricted. To qualify for unrestricted free agent status, a player must have accrued (played or been on injured reserve for 6+ games) at least 4 seasons.

This player is effectively on the open market and if he is in demand, he can get teams into a bidding war to get the best contract. This is how DE Mario Williams was able to receive a 6 year/$96M contract with the Bills. The Patriots rarely go after the high profile unrestricted free agents. As most teams try to do, the Patriots frequently try and extend their key players before they reach the open market (see: Rob Gronkowski), but that doesn't always work (see: Wes Welker). The only real bargaining tool a front office can use against unrestricted free agency is the franchise tag, which has been placed on Welker this year.

Franchise Tag:
A team is allowed to franchise tag one player a year. This player is given a one-year guaranteed contract whose value depends on the type of tag; exclusive (no other team can give an offer sheet): valued at the average salary of players tagged at a certain position during the past five years, non-exclusive (another team can give an offer but must give up two first round picks): valued at the average of the top five salaries of last season at his position. Most players dislike playing under the franchise tag as they prefer long term security over a single year contract. The only leverage a player has over the franchise tag is holding out during training camp and in extreme cases the beginning of the season. Under the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) significantly heavier fines can be applied to players who attempt to hold out, diminishing their leverage in these situations further.

Welker has signed his franchise tender and although he has made several comments that he is unhappy about the lack of a long term deal, he has attended every mandatory practice and does not plan on missing any time.

Compensatory Picks:
The only compensation a team can receive for having an unrestricted free agent walk in free agency is a "compensatory pick" in the next years draft. These compensatory picks are evaluated after each season before the draft. A total of 32 compensatory pick, ranging from rounds 3 to 7, are given to teams around the league that lost more unrestricted free agents than they gained. The position of the pick is determined by the size of the contract, playing time, and postseason honors of the player that walked. For example, I would expect the Texans to receive multiple picks next season for losing: Mario Williams to the Bills (3rd round), Eric Winston to the Chiefs (5th round), and Mike Brisiel to the Raiders (5th round). 

Candidates for the Patriots would be BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mark Anderson as both of them received larger contracts than their replacements. However, due to the signings of Brandon Lloyd, Steve Gregory, and Jabar Gaffney, I doubt the Patriots will be considered to have a net loss in free agency.

Restricted Free Agent:
A restricted free agent is a free agent with 3 accrued seasons and will frequently be offered a restricted free agent tender from his previous team. The tender is a one year deal whose value dictates what level draft pick must be given to his previous team, should another team sign him. Furthermore, the previous team also has the right of first refusal which allows them to match any offer given to the player within one week. There are three tenders that a team can apply to a player (the values in parentheses are from the 2012 season): first round tender ($2.75M), second round tender ($1.93M), and original round tender ($1.27M).

As an example of how restricted free agency works, I will put forth a scenario many fans were asking for before the draft. Mike Wallace is an elite wide receiver who is entering his prime with a first round tender from the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers do not have a lot of cap space and were actually forced to cut several players to get under the cap before the deadline. Therefore, the Patriots could have given Wallace a large front loaded deal, confident that the Steelers would have been unable to match the offer. If they succeeded, Wallace would sign the deal from the Patriots and the Patriots would give the Steeler their original first round pick (#31 overall in the 2012 draft).

The Patriots have one restricted free agent after this season, Kyle Love. I would not be surprised to see him receiving a second round tender before the start of free agency. If he plays well enough this season, it could bump him up to a first round tender.

Exclusive Rights Free Agent:
An exclusive rights free agent is a free agent with less than 3 accrued seasons. The exclusive rights free agent tender is fairly simple compared to the restricted free variety. The tender is valued at the minimum salary based on the number of accrued seasons and the player is simply not allowed to negotiate with other teams. This tender is incredibly lopsided as the front office clearly has all of the bargaining chips, but these types of free agents are very rare as they are typically undrafted rookies or practice squad players who are coming off of a two year deal and this effectively allows the team to add an extra year to the deal if desired. 


Sterling Moore is the sole free agent who qualifies after the 2012 season. If he continues his growth as a serviceable defensive back (he played at both safety and cornerback), I fully expect the Patriots to use this option and then possibly extend him similar to what they did with Kyle Arrington last year and Gary Guyton the year before.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: RT Sebastian Vollmer

Colin Read/Icon SMI

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013

Seabass is the anticipated starting right offensive tackle going into the 2012 season. That is, if he is healthy. Also drafted in the second round of the 2009 draft, Vollmer was a pick considered to have a lot of upside, but who was a very raw talent. Vollmer immigrated from Germany to play at the University of Houston for four years. After being drafted, he has spent most his time on the right side, although he did fill in for the injured Matt Light several times at left tackle. In 2010, Vollmer started every game at right tackle and earned second team All-Pro, but was stiffed from the Pro Bowl due to the lack of publicity at the spot. Vollmer continued to show his All-Pro caliber play, but was sidelined for a majority of the 2011 season with a back and foot injury. Due to his late entry into college in America, he is older compared to his draft class.  He will be 28 entering the season, while most draft picks from 2009 will be 24-25.

Proposed Contract: $30M/5 year, $8M guaranteed
This locks up Vollmer for most likely the rest of his career and his average salary of $6M/year makes him one of the better paid right tackles in the league. However, I think this would be a complex contract due to Vollmer's significant injury history. First off, I envision this would be a back loaded contract so a significant chunk of the money would be in the last two years and the Patriots could cut him earlier leaving a lot of money still on the table. Second, the guaranteed money is low compared to the total value of the contract, but this could be balanced with an option bonus in 2015. In other words, if Vollmer is healthy and plays well through the 2012-2014 seasons, he would get an immediate roster bonus which would be cap friendly to the Patriots, but reward Vollmer in the short term for his play.

Year:	Salary:	Signing Bonus:	Option Bonus:	Other Bonus:	Salary Cap:
2013	$900,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$0.00	$100,000.00	$2,600,000.00
2014	$1,400,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$0.00	$100,000.00	$3,100,000.00
2015	$2,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$6,366,666.67
2016	$4,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$8,366,666.67
2017	$5,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$9,366,666.67
				Total:	$29,800,000.00

Signing Bonus: $8M 

Option Bonus: $8M  (2015)

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: S Patrick Chung

 Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013

Chung was drafted by the Patriots in the second round in 2009. He is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2012 season. The Patriots defense, their pass defense in particular, was historically terrible this pass season, but Patrick Chung was one of the few bright spots in the secondary. The Patriots defense noticeably suffered when Chung missed 8 games this past season. As shown below, the defense gave up touchdowns twice as often when he was off the field compared to when he was on it. Obviously, not all of those statistics can be attributed to Chung's absence, Brandon Spikes missed the same 8 games and he is also an essential cog to the defense, particularly the run game.

	On Field	Off Field
Plays	661	553
Yds per att	7.7	9.8
Att per TD	25.5	10.0
Rush per TD	36.4	18.8
Source:    ESPN

Proposed Contract: $12.5M/3 year, $2.5M guaranteed

An average of $4.2M/year (similar money to Ryan Clark of the Steelers and Reggie Nelson of the Bengals) solidifies Chung as the starter for the next few years, but not quite at the level of Pro Bowl safeties. I limited the length of the contract due to Chung's difficulties with injuries the past two seasons. This just as easily could be a 4-5 year contract with a clause for a cheaper buyout should he get injured, or a team option for more years with a roster bonus.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: Preview

I was originally going to do these all as one post, but they were a little longer than I anticipated so I am breaking them up. To start us off, I wanted to mention the state of the cap for both the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

As the salary cap page shows the Patriots are doing well with over $10M in cap space with no major signings on the horizon. Any deals with players already on the roster would be expected to either lessen there cap hit for this year (i.e. a possible Welker deal), or add only a small increase (i.e. the Gronk deal).

In 2013, however, the cap situation is very different. First of all, nearly 40 players on the roster are not signed after 2012, while a significant number of them are recent free agent signings that aren't necessarily likely to make the 53 man roster, there are quite a few key players that have not been extended including: Welker, Patrick Chung, Kyle Love, Sebastian Vollmer, etc.  Also, Tom Brady's cap hit in 2013 is gigantic, a whopping $21.8M. This is over one sixth of the expected cap space next year. No player on the 2012 Patriots has a cap hit larger than $10M; Welker tops that list with his franchise tag at $9.5M. While a restructure or extension for Brady to reduce this huge number is not only possible, it is likely, I am going to be operating under the assumption that his contract will not be amended.

As I mentioned several key players are going to be free agents at the end of this season. I am going to present possible contracts that would seem reasonable to me. I will be trying to take into account the players skill, comparable contracts around the league, the positional depth, and other factors such as leadership and injury history. So far I have plans for: Patrick Chung, Sebastian Vollmer, Kyle Love, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington, Sterling Moore, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker. I'll be posting these throughout the week.

TE Rob Gronkowski is signed to an extension

Before I had the chance to speculate what the Patriots would do about the contract situation of their two amazing tight ends, they answered my question. TE Gronkowski was signed to an extension this morning. Details are still unknown, but because of the contract Green Bay gave TE Jermichael Finley this offseason, it is expected to be in the $9-10M range. I will post updates as they are reported.

Update: According to Adam Schefter, the deal is a 6 year extension worth $54M. This deal makes him the highest paid tight end in the NFL by a lot. The next closest salary is San Francisco's Vernon Davis' who signed a 6 year/$42.7M in 2010.

Update 2: I misunderstood the length of this deal. Effectively, this is actually an 8 year contract, as it is adding 6 years to the 2 years Gronk still has on his rookie contract. Therefore, this deal is more accurately described as $55.1M/8 year. This averages out to $6.9M/year, which ranks him 5th highest salary of NFL tight ends behind: Vernon Davis, Mercedes Lewis, Tony Gonzalez, and Jermichael Finley.

Source: PFT

Update 3: I added estimates for Gronkowski's new contract, courtesy of spotrac.com, to the salary cap page. In the immediate future, this seems like a win-win for both sides. Gronkowski looked to be criminally underpaid this year before this extension with a salary of $490k. With a signing bonus of $8M he gets money in his pocket now, along with a slight raise for the next two years at around $600k. After that, however, he gets a huge pay bump to about $4M. His salary for the next three years are all guaranteed so he has some insurance should he get injured.

Meanwhile, the Patriots lock-in their most important offensive player not named Tom Brady until nearly the end of the decade. Say what you want about Welker's importance on third down or Hernandez's versatility; no one makes the Patriots' offense run better than Gronk. He is obviously an elite pass catching tight end with his NFL record 1,327 yards on 90 receptions in 2011. He particularly shines in the red zone with his league-leading 17 TD receptions last year. But even more than that, he is a great blocking tight end (run or pass) who isn't afraid to hit someone in the mouth. In the AFC Championship, he blasted the Defensive Player of the Year, Terrell Suggs (right side), and then continued on to his route as if nothing happened. He allows the Patriots to run their offense so much more effectively because they can exploit match ups everywhere. If the defense beefs up to play the run, they split Gronk and Hernandez out wide for a 4 or 5 wide receiver set. If they play in a nickel or a dime, they bring Gronk and Hernandez inside and run it straight up the gut. If they double Gronk with bracket coverage, it allows other players, like Hernandez and Welker to win one-on-one battles. Looking back at the 2011 season, if there was a game where his stats were low, either Welker or Hernandez had explosive games; most notably @Oakland (Welker 9 rec, 158 yard, 1TD) and @Denver (Hernandez 9 rec, 129 yards, 1TD). Fans like to use the word beast a lot when describing a dominant player and it seems cliche, but I honestly don't know what other word describes Gronk better. In the game against the Redskins this past year, he had two of my favorite plays ever. (I apologize for the music, I couldn't find a highlight without any)

On top of all of the statistics that he is known for, Gronkowski also brings something else to the team, and to the locker room specifically. He is a fun-loving guy, in the purest sense. He is a goofball. He is the antithesis to Brady and Belichick, but that is a good thing. Matt Light was known for being a bit of a joker in the locker room too, and both Light and Gronk were seen after the Super Bowl loss dancing around foolishly. They were both able to recognize what an amazing accomplishment it was to even reach the Super Bowl and how lucky their lives have been. He is a player who works hard and earns his respect, but doesn't take life too seriously.

But what did the Patriots give up in this contract? First off, they guaranteed Gronkowski $18M, including the $8M signing bonus, when they currently were not pressed to sign him to an extension. He had two more years, plus he would have been a restricted free agent. Second, Gronkowski has seemed slightly susceptible to injuries. He sat out his junior year at Arizona because of a back injury, and in the AFC Championship game he suffered a high ankle sprain that limited his effectiveness in the Super Bowl and required surgery this offseason. So this contract is not free of risk on the Patriots side.

However, if Gronkowski does stay healthy and continues to perform at this high level, the Patriots will have orchestrated a huge amount of savings for the later part of this deal. If in 2016, they exercise a $10M roster bonus, they will have Rob under contract until he is 31. Over those last four years, his average cap hit will be  about $6.5M, which is not to say is a small amount of money, but had he hit the open market that number could easily have been $9-11M. The Vince Wilfork/Richard Seymour situation in 2009 is a stark counter-example to handling his contract this early. The Patriots forced both dominant defensive linemen into playing out contracts they had grossly exceeded. When it came time to re-sign them to larger contracts, they didn't have the space for both and were forced to ship Seymour off to the Raiders. While the Patriots turned the first round pick they got out of that deal into now starting LT Nate Solder, not rewarding both lineman forced them to change the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because they didn't have the personnel to run a 3 man front. Trying to rebuild on the fly has been one of the many reasons why the Patriots' defense has been so porous these past few years.  Now they have significantly more leverage over Hernandez when it comes time to re-sign him.

So by investing now, and taking on the risk of an injury, the Patriots are able to get an elite offensive threat for a significantly discounted price in his prime years. In my opinion there are two less quantitative benefits from this contract. First, it keeps Gronkowski and other players in the locker room happy. He was rewarded for his elite play on the field and more importantly his potential to keep performing at that elite level; this is an action the Patriots aren't always known for, see the Welker contract situation. Second, it removes a significant amount of uncertainty about the Patriots offense. They can now draft/sign players that specifically compliment Gronkowski for years to come. As I said, they added leverage to Hernandez's contract talks, and probably Welker's too.

Overall, I am very happy about this extension. I look forward to watching Gronk spike the shit out of the ball every touchdown for years to come. As for what to look forward to, I am working on a post about other possible extensions (i.e. Aaron Hernandez, Patrick Chung, Wes Welker, and Sebastian Vollmer) the Patriots may be working on this offseason taking into account their cap space in 2013 and beyond.

Adios Ochocinco

1. The Patriots Release WR Chad Ochocinco
With the first major cut of the offseason (but the fourth of the day), the Patriots informed Ochocinco that they are parting ways. After a disappointing season last year, (15 receptions, 276 yards, 1 TD) Ocho did what he could to stick around, including taking a significant paycut, leaving $2M on the table. But with the return of players like Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Deion Branch, receivers who have proven themselves in McDaniels' offense, this cut seemed inevitable. While he never blossomed as the receiver fans hoped he would be, Ochocinco acted like a true professional and a class act his entire time in New England. With the exception of the first game of the season last year, he never said anything that would grab a headline; and even after he was cut, his twitter account is filled with quotes like "Thoroughly enjoyed the oppurtunity to play for the "Patriot" organization... fans were fucking wicked awesome, I wish all of you the best..."

From a financial standpoint, the Patriots opened up about $2M in cap space this year, but put over $3M in dead cap space for the 2013 season. I'll get into this in a later post, but because the Patriots have so many players with expiring contracts this year they have a lot of cap space next year, but a lot of holes to fill as well.

2. Updated Salary Cap Page:
I have updated the salary cap page to reflect the changes to the roster since the draft.

The most notable signing in that time is RB Joseph Addai, the former Colt, who is added to the Patriots stable of running backs. There has been debate about just how many running/full backs the Patriots will keep this year with McDaniels' significant use of the screen game.

Notable cuts besides Ochocinco include: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the injury prone slot receiver who added insurance to the Welker situation, and DE/OLB Markell Carter. Carter was a star on the practice squad last year after being selected in the 6th round in the 2011 draft. Many expected him to make a significant improvement after he bulked up to 275 lbs, but with the signing of Trevor Scott and drafting of Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette, there seemed to be too many players ahead of him on the roster.

As of today, the Patriots currently have 87 players signed to the roster, and therefore, have 3 open spots to fill. Both DE Andre Carter and S James Ihedigbo, significant contributors to last years defense, remain unsigned, although both are recovering from injury this offseason.

The Roster Is Full

With the final three signings this past week, the Patriots have (or are soon to have) 90 players under contract. They added two running backs, undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden, out of Mississippi, and Joseph Addai, a veteran formerly with the Colts. They also added another OLB/DE "tweener" Justin Francis, an undrafted free agent from Rutgers. This is the third Rutgers product Belichick has acquired in as many years, the other two being CB Devin McCourty and WR Tiquan Underwood. Belichick's son plays lacrosse at Rutgers and he is known for scouting their football program while on campus.

The number of roster spots by position are as followed:

Offense:
Wide Receiver: 12
Center/Guard: 9
Tackle: 6
Running Back: 6
Quarterback: 4
Tight End: 4
Fullback: 2
Total: 43

Defense:
Defensive Line (DT/3-4 DE): 9
Pass Rusher (OLB/4-3 DE): 9
Inside Linebacker: 9
Cornerback: 8
Safety: 8
Total: 43

Special Teams:
Kickers: 2
Long Snapper: 1
Punter: 1
Total: 4

Compared to last season, there is a significant emphasis on the wide receiver and pass rushing position. Last season the focus was mostly on the defensive line, highlighted by the signings of Albert Haynesworth and Shaun Ellis. The offense and defense are evenly balanced with 43 players on each side of the ball. I would anticipate when the roster is eventually cut down to 53, that the same 1 to 1 balance would be applied. I think the most difficult cuts will be at wide receiver, defensive back, and inside linebacker. Whereas quarterback, tight end, and most of the offensive line are very clear cut.

WR Tiquan Underwood Released

Underwood was informed of his release today. This reduces the number of receivers back to 12 and leaves 3 open roster spots.  Based on the state of the different positions, a player would have an opportunity at making the 53 man roster at safety (or defensive back, in general), defensive line, offensive line (particularly a versatile guard/tackle), or kick returner. Based on how the Patriots have valued kick returns, I see the chances of a return man as doubtful. I think the most likely signing is on defensive line.

Two Quick Thoughts

1. Junior Seau Is Found Shot In His House
Seau was a linebacker for the Patriots from 2006 to 2009. The future Hall of Famer was found dead in his house in San Diego this afternoon. Seau was the ultimate team player. He was a powerful leader in the locker room and backed up his speeches with his play. The 12 time pro bowler came to the Patriots hoping to win a Super Bowl, but fell just short in 2007. My thoughts go out to his family and friends. A great player and a better man.

2. WR Jabar Gaffney Has Reportedly Accepted an Offer From the Patriots
According to Mike Reiss' twitter, Jabar Gaffney will be a Patriot next season, or at least offseason. There are now 13 (!) wide receivers on the roster. Gaffney and the recently signed Dante Stallworth were among the many receivers used in the Patriots deadly spread attack in 2007. Josh McDaniels seems to be bringing in receivers he has trusted in the past. Gaffney has had solid since leaving the Patriots. He had 68 receptions for 947 yards and 5 touchdowns last year with the Redskins. The major aspect Gaffney does not bring is youth. He turned 31 this past December.

EDIT: According to Jason LaCanfora of the NFL Network it is a two year deal.

Two Free Agent Signings and Thoughts on the Few Remaining Spots

1. Defensive Lineman Re-Signed: Gerard Warren
It was reported yesterday that the Patriots re-signed defensive lineman Gerard Warren. Warren has been a rotational player that has provided solid depth on the line. He is a 10 year veteran who will likely have a spot on the final 53 man roster. He saw more playing time in 2010, when he was a defensive end in the base 3-4 defense; versus last year where he played as a tackle in sub packages. This signing adds depth to a defensive line that did not get addressed during the draft.

2. Undrafted Rookie Free Agent Signed: WR Matt Roark, Kentucky
Kentucky's twitter account announced that Matt Roark, a wide receiver, has signed with the Patriots. Roark is a huge wide receiver with decent speed for his size. He is 6'5", 225 lbs with a 4.72 40 time. For comparison,  Rob Gronkowski is 6'6" with a 4.70 40 time, but he weighs 260 lbs; and Aaron Hernandez is 6'3", 245 lbs with a 4.65 40 time.  Roark has some flexibility as he was also used as a wildcat quarterback and had decent production running the ball as well. This is the 12th wide receiver on the current roster, if you include Welker.

3. Thoughts on Remaining Roster Spots:
With these two signings, by my count 87 of the 90 possible roster spots are filled. With the three remaining spots, I think the defensive line, running back, and safety depth should all be filled.  Not counting outside linebacker type defensive ends, like Chandler Jones and Trevor Scott, there are 9 defensive lineman on the current roster. Of those 9, I only see four of them as locks. Vince Wilfork, Jonathan Fanene, Kyle Love, and Brandon Deaderick. I'll add Gerard Warren as a solid fifth option. For a 3-4 defense, there should be at least 6 big bodied lineman. Marcus Forston and Marcus Harrison are not likely to make the team, and will probably end up on the practice squad. Myron Pryor shows potential but cannot stay healthy. Rob Brace is a second round disappointment who is now on the bubble. Adding one more possibility here would help the team. As for safety, Yeremiah Bell, the former Dolphin, has already had contact with the Patriots and I think he would make sense, if the Patriots don't re-sign James Ihedigbo. Although it is reasonable for the Patriots to start with three running backs and a fullback once the season starts, I think they should add competition to running back as it is distinctly lacking any. They have brought in several backs for workouts, including Tim Hightower, Ryan Grant, and Joseph Addai. Kevin Faulk is also an option here. He is an all-time great Patriot and a lock for the Patriots HOF, but I personally think after 13 NFL seasons it is time for him to retire. Furthermore, unless the Patriots already have an idea of who will be returning kicks, a returner could also be a good pick up.

Updated Salary Cap Page

I have added all of the rookies to the salary cap page. The minimum base salary for rookies this year is $390,000. I based the signing bonuses on last years draft looking at both where they were drafted overall and their position. As the contracts are released I will update them. Also to note, the Patriots currently have 85 players on the roster after they sign all of their draft pick and Welker, leaving 5 more spots for free agents.

Also, with the announcement of Matt Light's retirement I removed his salary from the cap. The Pats bought out his remaining salary for $1.5M which will save them $5M in cap space. The $1.5M is reflected in the dead cap table.

Post Draft Analysis - Thoughts on the Pats, AFC East, and More

1. Thoughts on the Draft Class:
The draft has officially ended. The Patriots drafted a total of seven players, one of the leanest draft classes they've had in the Belichick era. Overall, I would say the theme of their picks was versatility. Nearly every player selected has the ability to play multiple positions. Many fans are excited that the Patriots took an aggressive strategy this year addressing the teams obvious weak point, the defense. All of the picks were on the defensive side of the ball with the lone exception being their last pick, a wide receiver out of Northwestern. I would say depth along both the offensive and defensive line, safety, and return specialist are the three areas that they should address in free agency.




2. Pick By Pick Grading:
When applying these grades I'm trying to balance a few things: the skill of the player, the value of the pick, the need on the team/the fit, and what other players were available.


Round 1, Pick #21 Overall:
Chandler Jones - Defensive End, Syracuse
The Patriots traded up from #27 to select Jones, giving up their original third round pick (#93 overall). As I mentioned in the previous post, Jones looks like a great addition to the team and he fills the biggest need on the team, a pass rushing outside linebacker/defensive end when in a 3-4/4-3 respectively. He even has the size, 6'5" 265lbs, to play defensive end in a 3-3-5 nickel defense. My issue with the pick is the price and the other available players. It is exciting to know the Patriots are confident enough in him to move up to get him, but I didn't see much of a difference between him and Nick Perry who was selected #28 overall by the Packers. The third round selection was a pretty steep price to pay and I think that effected their decisions later in the draft.
Grade: B


Round 1, Pick #25 Overall:
Donta Hightower - Inside Linebacker, Alabama
Again the Patriots traded up from #31 to select Hightower, giving up their original fourth round pick (#126 overall). Contrary to Jones, I think this was a great trade. A fourth rounder to move up 6 spots in the first round is great value. Like Jones, they got a great defensive player who can dominate in the run game and get after the quarterback on third down. My major issues with the pick are the fit and Hightower's pass coverage abilities. Hightower looks very similar to Brandon Spikes, one of the young stars on the defense, including his liability in coverage. If Hightower brought something more to the table in that area, I might be higher on the pick, but looking at who else was available I would have supported trading back at this point, ideally into the late second or third with a first in next years draft.
Grade: C+


Round 2, Pick #48 Overall:
Tavon Wilson - Defensive Back, Illinois
A pick that had almost everyone following the draft say, "who?".  In terms of a need and skill set, I love this pick. The value, however, I think is poor. This was the exact kind of player when I was highlighting the safety position in my Needs post. "I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage" Wilson played safety for most of his time at Illinois, but his senior year he was moved to cornerback where he regularly lined up against tight ends and slot receivers. After watching what little film is available on him he shows some promise, but I really feel like this was an overdraft because he was on practically no one elses radar. At the time the Patriots only had this pick and #62 overall. If they were having difficulty, finding a viable trade partner they may have had to take Wilson while they were here. After watching some of his tape, he seems to be decent in coverage, but has poor tackling form. He needs to learn to wrap up the ball carrier instead of just thrusting at him with his shoulder.
Grade: B-

Round 3, Pick #90 Overall:
Jake Bequette - Defensive End, Arkansas
My second favorite pick of their entire draft. I think they hit on all points: skill, value, and fit. Bequette doesn't have the flashiest tape but he is consistent and relentless. He played at both left and right defensive end in Arkansas' 4-3 defense. He is someone I see as replacing Mark Anderson's situational pass rushing position. He spent most of his time with his hand in the dirt, but I think he actually looked a little better standing up. In my opinion, he doesn't have the strength to be consistent against the run in a four lineman front, but he's at his best sprinting into the backfield.
Grade: A


Round 6, Pick #197 Overall:
Nate Ebner - Defensive Back, Ohio State
Ebner was a walk on at Ohio State who also played rugby. He predominantly played safety and contributed on special teams. He had a good relationship with former Patriot Mike Vrabel, who stressed the importance of special teams.  Ebner's play on special teams and added depth to the safety position make this a good pick. The only complaint I have I think there might have been a few other players out there, particularly along the defensive line, which may have helped the team more. 
Grade: B+


Round 7, Pick #224 Overall:
Alfonzo Dennard - Cornerback, Nebraska
My favorite pick in the Pats draft. Dennard is a player that has second round talent that fell this far because of an incident a week ago at a bar fight where he was arrested for assaulting a police officer. This is the ultimate low risk, high reward pick. Either he gets his act together and plays well, or he continues to be a headache and the Pats lose essentially nothing. He was never considered to be a number one corner, but instead projected to be a solid starter in the slot. Similar to wide receiver, the Pats are getting a lot of depth at corner which will inspire competition in training camp and allow them to be robust to injuries.
Grade: A+


Round 7, Pick #235 Overall:
Jeremy Ebert - Wide Receiver, Northwestern
Julian Edelmen 2.0. On a side note: I am a big fan of Edelman, not only for his play and willingness to do anything (read: play cornerback), but also for his love of Boston and the other Boston sports teams. Ebert was a high school quarterback who converted to a slot receiver in college. He is similar height and build to Wes Welker and Edelman and will likely back them up. He is the eleventh wide receiver on the team and is unlikely to make the roster this year, but learning from Welker will be a great situation for him. He provides youth to a receiving corps that is distinctly lacking in that area. 
Grade: B+


Undrafted:
Brad Herman - Tight End, Iowa
A strong tight end that has some athleticism, but never was able to achieve success in college. Most likely considered to be a blocking tight end for run plays although he is a little small for that. A solid practice squad player.
Grade: B


Undrafted:
Markus Zusevics - Offensive Tackle, Iowa
A polished slightly undersized tackle (in girth not height) who would likely play guard due to his trouble against speed rushers. Zusevics doesn't have as much upside as other undrafted lineman, but he shows good technique and is known for his hard working attitude. He injured himself at the combine.
Grade: B+


Undrafted:
Jeremiah Warren - Offensive Guard, South Florida
I mentioned in the Needs post that depth at guard is necessary due to the uncertainty at the position. I thought a raw prospect that has intriguing upside would be the best target. On paper, Warren looks like that player. He is someone who used his considerable size and strength to make up for his poor technique. However, watching him play makes me think otherwise. There are several plays where he blatantly gives up and stops trying. He is decent in pass protection, but doesn't have the speed to pull in the run game effectively.
Grade: C+


Undrafted:
Marcus Forston - Defensive Tackle, Miami
Forston played at the 3 technique on a 4 man front for the Hurricanes. He seemed more comfortable playing as a penetrating one gap lineman versus a read react two gap lineman that the Patriots usually play. He is a little short at 6'1", but he has the weight to play as a 5 technique defensive end. He is strong against the run and adds depth the front line rotation.
Grade: A-




3. Undrafted Free Agents:
Below is a list of undrafted free agents and a few quick thoughts about them.
Lucas Nix - Offensive Guard, Pittsburgh: A mauling run blocker, so-so in pass protection. Signed with the Raiders.
James Brown - Offensive Guard, Troy: Unrefined talent with significant upside. Signed with the Bears.
DaJohn Harris - Defensive Tackle, USC: A skilled able bodied defensive tackle.
Hebron Fangupo - Nose Tackle, BYU: Stout, slow run blocker with two gap experience. Signed with the Texans.
Mark Rodgers - Running Back, Cal Poly: Small quick back with experience as a return specialist.
Dorian Graham - Wide Receiver, Syracuse: Small, fast return specialist.
Isaiah Jackson - Running Back, Central Arkansas: Return specialist.




4. AFC East Draft Grades


New York Jets:
The Jets had an up and down draft. I am in the common school of thought that defensive end/outside linebacker Quinton Coples, their first round pick, will be a bust. He openly admitted to quitting on his team in college. The Jets don't have the most stable of locker rooms right now and I see him following in Vernon Gholston's footsteps. On the other hand, Stephen Hill, a wide receiver out of Georgia Tech, looks like an absolute stud. I do not look forward to matching up against him twice a season.  Their third round selection, Demario Davis, is an outside linebacker with tremendous speed, most likely due to his lighter frame. He weighs 230 lbs, which is small for his position. Outside of their top three picks, they added depth to some needed positions, including safety and running back.
Grade: B-


Miami Dolphins:
The Dolphins could have had a great draft, but because of the Ryan Tannehill pick in the first round I have to downgrade it. They were able to improve their offensive line with Jonathan Martin and got great value drafting a pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, to pair with Cameron Wake. They also got a speedy running back in Lamar Miller who seems to have a redundant skill set with Reggie Bush on the roster. However, he was good value in the fourth round.
Grade: B+


Buffalo Bills:
I thought the Bills had probably the best draft in the AFC East. I think they hit it big with their first two picks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and offensive tackle Cordy Gleen. They also added a deep threat, T.J. Graham, to pair with Stevie Johnson. Graham also has value as a return specialist. In the later rounds, they added depth to their offensive line and their defense.
Grade: A




5. Free Agents
Below is a list of non-rookie free agents who the Pats could consider targeting.
Cedric Benson - Running Back
Ryan Grant - Running Back
Yeremiah Bell - Safety
James Ihedigbo - Safety
Oshiomogho Atogwe - Safety
Andre Carter - Defensive End




6. Thoughts on the Rest of the League
After browsing the other teams' drafts, here are the teams that I think did the best overall (in no particular order).


Pittsburgh Steelers:
A team that is known for not getting very fancy on draft day, but that consistently makes good decisions. This year seems to be no different. They start out by getting the biggest steal of Day 1, David DeCastro, offensive guard from Stanford, at #24 overall. Then follow that up with another offensive lineman, Mike Adams from Ohio State. Offensive line just went from a big weakness to a solid strength on this team. In the third and fourth round, they add a linebacker, Sean Spence from Miami (FL), and a nose tackle, Alameda Ta'amu from Washington, respectively. Spence adds youth to an aging linebacking corps that is depleted due to cuts they made to get under cap. Ta'amu is a MASSIVE nose tackle who will replace Casey Hampton who is coming off a knee surgery and is 34.
Grade: A+


Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals had a lot of picks this year, thanks to good management and the Carson Palmer trade. They went out and got a lot of play makers on defense. They selected two of the players I highlighted for the Pats in the first and second round respectively, Dre Kirkpatrick (CB Alabama) and Devon Still (DT Penn State). On top of that they added a great run block guard, Kevin Zeitler from Wisconsin, in the first. They had two selections in the third, Mohamed Sanu, a wide receiver from Rutgers, and Brandon Thompson, a defensive tackle from Clemson. After losing a few pieces along the defensive line (including Jonathan Fanene to the Patriots), the Bengals add two quality players to their rotation. They replace Jonathan Joseph, who they lost last year at corner, with Kirkpatrick, who is tall, physical and shows excellent tackling. Then on the offensive side of the ball, they add a powerful guard who will be blocking for the Law Firm and a big wide receiver to line up opposite their stud, AJ Green. Finally, they get great value in selecting George Iloka, free safety out of Boise State, in the fifth to boost their secondary. He was considered a late second round/early third round pick. They addressed nearly all of their needs, with the exception of linebacker, got great value from several of their picks (Sanu and Iloka), and made very smart decision in the early rounds.
Grade: A+


Houston Texans:
The Texans had a solid draft, addressing most of their needs. They added an outstanding pass rusher in Whitney Mercilus, defensive end from Illinois, but their are concerns of him being a one year wonder. They beefed up their offensive line with Brandon Brooks from Miami (OH) and Ben Jones from Georgia, which was thin due to cuts for cap space. They added depth in the third and fourth rounds to a potent receiving corps with DeVier Posey from Ohio State and Keshawn Martin from Michigan State. Posey is a bigger receiver, who doesn't have great speed, but will benefit from having Andre Johnson on the other side of the field. Martin is a smaller possession receiver who will likely line up almost exclusively in the slot. I think their best pick was Jared Crick, defensive tackle from Nebraska, in the fourth round. He had a high second round grade and fell due to a pectoral muscle injury. The one position that could still be addressed for them is linebacker.
Grade: A-


Green Bay Packers:
Like the Steeler, the Packers are known for building through the draft. Like the Pats, the Packers went almost exclusively defense. They started things off with a player who I thought looked very similar to Chandler Jones, in USC's Nick Perry. A big defensive end in a four man front, who will now be standing up opposite Clay Matthews. In the second and fourth, they added two defensive tackles, Jerel Worthy from Michigan State and Mike Daniels from Iowa, in the hope of replacing Cullen Jenkins who they lost to the Eagles last year. Also in the second and fourth, they added depth to their secondary with defensive backs, Casey Hayward from Vanderbilt and Jerron McMillian from Maine. The Packers were last in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (the Pats were right behind them at 31st). Their draft was clearly trying to remedy this. They added a monster pass rusher, boosted their defensive line with players who can collapse the pocket, and added depth to their secondary. I expect them to look for a running back among the undrafted free agents, as the running back position has become increasingly devalued and they can definitely still find a solid player.
Grade: A


Philadelphia Eagles:
Similar to the Pats and Packers, the Eagles focused mostly on defense. They traded up in the first round to select the top defensive tackle, Fletcher Cox from Mississippi St. The Eagles play in a 4-3 defense, where their defensive ends line up at the wide 9 technique. Which means they line up on the outside shoulder of the tight end. This makes them incredibly difficult to block on passing downs and they provide great pressure to the quarterback, but this strategy has a huge weakness against the run. In order to run this defense effectively, they need dominant play from their defensive tackles and linebackers. The Eagles were regularly gashed for big run plays due to their weaknesses at those positions. But thanks to free agency and drafting Cox and then Mychal Kendricks, an inside linebacker from Cal, in the second, their defense has been significantly improved. Also in the second round, they selected Vinny Curry, a defensive end from Marshall, who is considered to be one of the better pure pass rushers in the draft. Last year the Eagles led the league in sacks with 50. By adding Curry to their already potent pass rushing attack, they become a scary team to face. I think they are learning from their division rival Giants, that if you want to win in the playoffs you need to be able to rush the passer. I also liked two of their later round picks, Brandon Boykin, cornerback from Georgia, and Brandon Washington, guard from Miami (FL). Both were players I had my eye on for the Pats, but I think the key was they selected them exactly where I had them valued, in the fourth and sixth rounds, respectively. Finally, one of their key signings was an undrafted free agent Chris Polk, a running back from Washington. A second round talent who inexplicably fell out of the draft completely, he is a wrecking ball type running back who will help the Eagles with their short yardage woes from last year.
Grade: A+