Saturday, April 7, 2012

Needs By Position - Part 1/2

Before I start posting about draft prospects, I wanted to start by looking at the current roster and identifying the state of each position.

Offense:


Quarterback:

Players Under Contract:
Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Mike Hartline

Need: - None
Quarterback is the most secure position on the roster. With the four players under contract, the Pats have everything you could ask for at the position. An elite starter in Tom Brady, a serviceable backup that the organization clearly has confidence in based on the second round tender in Brian Hoyer, a development project that shows promise in Ryan Mallett, and a practice squad body in Mike Hartline.

Offensive Tackle:

Players Under Contract:
Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix

Need - Slight depth
The biggest issue with the tackle position, and the whole offensive line in general, is uncertainty. Matt Light is strongly considering retirement and Sebastian Vollmer missed more than half of last season with a back injury. Behind them on the depth chart are two quality young sophomores, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. In the likely situation that Light retires, Solder can take over at LT and hopefully Vollmer starting at RT. However, that leaves Cannon as the only legitimate reserve, as Matt Kopa and Kyle Hix will likely be fighting for a practice squad spot. In the draft, I think the ideal candidate would be a later round prospect with guard/tackle flexibility that has raw skills but significant upside and then let Scarnecchia coach him up.

Offensive Guard/Center:

Players Under Contract:
Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Connolly, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas

Need: - Depth
Similar to the tackle position there is uncertainty. Brian Waters is also contemplating retirement, Logan Mankins underwent ACL surgery during the offseason and Dan Koppen is still a free agent.  Dan Connolly was signed to a 3 year/$10 million contract and is clearly anticipated to be a starter, the question is where? If Brian Waters, who had a Pro Bowl year at RG last season and was one of the top free agent pickups last year, foregoes retirement and stays, Connolly is the obvious start at center. But part of Connolly's value is his versatility and could be placed at RG, if Waters retires.The Robert Gallery signing was probably my favorite this offseason with the exception of Jonathan Fanene on the defensive line. He provides a BIG, strong replacement for Mankins at LG for the beginning of the season and can be a consistent back up when he returns, possibly even filling in at RT if necessary. Nick McDonald performed adamantly in his sole start at center against the Redskins last season and Donald Thomas is solely a depth/practice squad option. As I said, I think an offensive lineman with the versatility to play multiple spots and significant upside would be a solid 3rd or 4th round draft pickup.

Running Back:

Players Under Contract:
Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Eric Kettani

Need - None
I may be in the minority, but I feel like the running back position is fine. The Patriots are not a ground and pound team. I was intrigued with the idea of bringing in Michael Bush in the offseason, but since he landed with the Bears, I don't think the position needs to be addressed in free agency or the draft. Stevan Ridley showed promise with the exception of the two fumbles late last season. Danny Woodhead isn't explosive or a workhorse, but has good hands and blocking ideal for a third down back. I think the wildcard is Shane Vereen. He was drafted to be a speedy back who could get to the edge and I am interested to see what he can do. Eric Kettani is a RB/FB hybrid who can provide depth, possibly a practice squad player. The only exception to addressing RB in the draft is if the player would provide a legitimate kick return threat, i.e. Florida's Chris Rainey.

Fullback:

Players Under Contract:
Spencer Larsen, Tony Fiammetta

Need - None
A development of this offseason is the return of the fullback position to the Pats offense. Spencer Larsen signed a two year deal is expected to make the game day roster. Tony Fiammetta (and Eric Kettani to an extent) will provide training camp competition.

Tight End:

Players Under Contract:
Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells

Need - Practice Squad Body
The Patriots along with teams like the Saints, Packers, 49ers, and Chargers, have redefined the role of the tight end in recent history.  The Pats have two incredibly athletic tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who can produce all over the field. But they are not without fault, Hernandez has the tendency to  put the ball on the turf while scrapping for extra yards and Gronk has taken ridiculously hard hits due to his propensity to fight off would be tacklers. Depth was an issue last year, as exemplified in the Super Bowl, due to both practice squad players being snatched up by division rivals. The Pats addressed the issue by signing Daniel Fells. The former Bronco was asked to stay in and block most of the time last year, however,  with limited success, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. He will likely be in for the Pats 3 TE goal line/short yardage sets, but otherwise he provides depth. The tight end position is set with the possible exception of a free agent for the practice squad, undrafted rookie or otherwise.

Wide Receiver:

Players Under Contract:
Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Anthony Gonzalez, Donte Stallworth, Tiquan Underwood, Britt Davis

Need - Development
The most polarizing position on the Pats roster, with the possible exception of a pass rushing OLB.  Many fans over the offseason were screaming for the Pats to sign Mike Wallace. I was not in that camp. With the contract he would of required and Wes Welker's franchise tag, 20% of their cap space would have been devoted to the wide receiver position. That is just not good business. Brandon Lloyd, on the other hand, was possibly the biggest steal of the offseason. With Pierre Garcon getting $42.5 million/5 years, $12 m/3 years is outright criminal.  This is one of several positions the Pats seem to be stock piling to develop competition during training camp. There are ten players under contract and the significant possibility of another one on the way is a lot of bodies. Historically the Pats have kept between 6 or 7 roster spots for receivers. With the addition of the fullback and having three tight ends, the number will probably be 6. Welker and Lloyd are practical locks to be starters. Slater was a special teams captain and was rewarded with a $5.4 m/3 year deal.  Edelman has been Welker's backup and the main punt returner. Underwood and Davis are likely practice squad players. This leaves two spots for Branch, Ocho, Gonzalez, Stallworth, or a possible draft prospect.  I am not going to speculate who will get cut here, but I will say that youth is a noticeable deficiency among the group, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Ocho, and Stallworth are all over 30. Although the Patriots have not been good at drafting wide receivers under Belichick's tenure (Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price to name a few), I think they should target a big receiver, ideally with kick return capabilities. I don't think this position should be targeted within the first two rounds, unless the value is just too good to pass up. The free agents have given Brady enough weapons for this year, but the draft is the best place to address the future. Something to note, while McDaniels was in Denver, he drafted Demaryius Thomas who has shown great speed and is developing into a very good receiver. Granted he was a first round pick, but Eric Decker also has had significant success. It might behoove BB to consult McDaniels when it comes to the position.

Offense Overall:

Overall, the offense is fairly sound. Not surprising for offense that ranked second in total yards and third in scoring. They could use depth at guard/tackle, especially due to the uncertainty at the position, and a young wide receiver who could possibly contribute in the return game.

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