Thoughts on the First Round and the Rest of the Draft

There are a few things I want to touch on particularly because I was not able to finish my prospects posts.

1. I have one word to describe the Pats draft so far: confusing. Not to be mistaken with surprising. Belichick is known for throwing a curveball come draft day, but it is a curveball that is usually risk averse and conservative. The Pats wildly deviated from the typical draft strategy in several ways.

- They drafted a pass rusher in the first round.
- They used both of their first round selections.
- They traded up TWICE.
- They addressed a position that might be the deepest on the roster (ILB).

Just confusing.


2. Pick #21: Chandler Jones DE/OLB - Syracuse, Grade: B
Jones struck me as second round player, but had gotten a lot of buzz this week. He's a big guy that brings versatility, a quality the Patriots covet. He is able to play defensive end in a four man front, outside linebacker in a three man front, and in nickel packages on third down could even play defensive end in a three man front. Watching his film, he provides a decent pass rush and smarts, but seems like a liability in the run game. I gave the selection a B because although he definitely fits a need and looks like a solid player, the pick seemed high, they gave up a third round selection to move up, and other similar players (Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw) were available at the Pats original selection, #27.


3. Pick #25: Donta Hightower ILB/OLB - Alabama, Grade: C+
I do not understand this selection. Hightower looks like a great player, true. An excellent run stopping thumper for first and second down. But he reminds me of Brandon Spikes, a run stopper who can blitz the A gap, but is weak in coverage. Spikes, who the Patriots used a second round pick on in 2010, still has two years on his contract. In a 3-4, the Patriots have Spikes and Jerod Mayo, their leader and second best player, at inside linebacker. Mayo is also one of the few players signed past 2013. In the Needs posts I posted before the draft, I mentioned that inside linebacker was the only position on defense that didn't need anything. You can't even claim they were just selecting the best player available because they traded UP to get him. This pick doesn't get an F for two reasons: first, watching Hightower's tape he was exceptional at stopping the run and was able to line up at outside linebacker on third down to rush the passer, and second, because it prevented him from going to the Raven's where I think he would have fit perfectly and wreaked havoc. (Hence why they immediately traded down afterwards).


4. AFC East Grades:
Miami Dolphins: #8 Overall: Ryan Tannehill QB - Texas A&M, Grade: D
Buffalo Bills: #10 Overall: Stephon Gillmore CB - South Carolina, Grade: A
NY Jets: #16 Overall: Quentin Coples DE - North Carolina, Grade: C-

A consolation for the Pats sub-par draft, the AFC East in general didn't do very well. The Dolphins picked who everyone thought they would, in Tannehill and the Jets took Coples both have bust written all over them. The Bills, however, selected a solid cornerback to help their woeful secondary.


5. Rest of the Draft:
Overall, it seems the Pats are coveting versatility. Jones can play end or outside and Hightower can move inside or outside for either front. Projecting that to the rest of the draft I would hope for a hybrid defensive tackle/end and a safety/corner. As they currently stand, the Pats have two selections in the second round and that is it. I would hope they trade down with at least one of them as I think they have more holes to fill than just two and although they are always very active in the undrafted free agent market, there are still several viable prospects.


6. Prospects:
Speaking of prospects here are several that I still have my eye on:
Devon Still, DT - Penn State (2nd)
Jerel Worthy, DT - Michigan State (2nd)
Josh Chapman, DT - Alabama (3rd)
Billy Winn, DE - Boise State (3rd)
Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS - Montana (2nd)
Josh Robinson, CB - Central Florida (2nd)
Brandon Boykin, CB/KR - Georgia (2nd)
George Iloka, FS - Boise State (3rd)
Brandon Hardin, FS - Oregon State (5th)
Senio Kelemete, G - Washington (4th)
James Brown, G - Troy (4th)
Brandon Washington, G - Miami (FL) (5th)
Chris Owusu, WR/KR - Stanford (4th)
Joe Adams, WR/KR - Arkansas (4th)

Dan Koppen Signing and Matt Light Retiring

I added the new contract information for Dan Koppen to the salary cap page. While his cap hit looks large ($2.7 mil - 10th on the team), a vast majority of the salary comes from non-guaranteed incentives; and it is probable that his actual cap hit will be significantly less. For more information here is the link to ESPN.

 Also, according to Mike Florio at ProFootball Talk, Matt Light will be retiring. The announcement is not official so I will keep him on the roster for now. If he does retire, New England would open up $3.5M in cap space.

EDIT: According to Spotrac, Matt Light's buyout is only costing the team $1.5M and therefore saves the team $5M in cap space.

Thoughts About Rookie Wage Scale and Salary Cap

Not too surprisingly, in the process of making the table on the Salary Cap page, I learned a lot about how the salary cap works. In particular, there were a few things that changed with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The most substantial being that only the top 51 salaries count towards the cap. If you notice at the bottom of the table I made, there are two totals. The first is the sum of all of the salaries and the second is the sum of the top 51 that actually count towards the cap. I have been thinking about this for a while and thought this would cause an incentive to the team to pay the players at the bottom of the roster all approximately the same amount. I don't have evidence to support this, but I am going to look into this further later.

The focus of almost all my posts so far have been about the draft and this one is no different. Another part of the new CBA is a revised rookie wage scale. This exists mostly to lower the massive risks that are associated with picking in the top of the first round; making those picks incredibly valuable, case in point the Redskins trade for the number 2 overall pick. Right now the 51st salary that counts is Tiquan Underwood at $615k. Therefore, anyone signed with a cap hit smaller than $615k this year does NOT count towards the cap at all! (unless they are cut) Comparing the salaries from last year, players selected in the middle to end of the second round all had cap hits smaller than $615k their first year and are therefore invisible to the cap. To me, this seems to greatly increase the value of low second round and high third round picks. You can get top quality talent for free in regards to the cap! This may be considered penny pinching, but for a team, and coach in particular, that emphasizes value over just skill and is known for working the draft board, this makes me think the Pats will move to get several picks at the end of the second/beginning of the third round.

Draft Prospect - DL Devon Still (Penn State)

Photo: Matthew O'Haren/Icon SMI

Name: Devon Still

Position:  Defensive Tackle

School: Penn State

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round

Analysis:
Devon is the ideal size for what the Pats look for in a 3-4 defensive end, 6'5" 300 lbs. He doesn't have great speed and isn't going to chase anyone down from behind, but he has a terrific first step and initial quickness. At Penn State, Devon played in a 4-3 front where he would line up as a one gap 3 technique. This would allow him to use his quick first step to penetrate into the backfield and disrupt plays. Looking at his games against Alabama and Illinois there are several occasions where he nearly sacks the quarterback on a run play. Think about that. This penetration allows him to be a 3 down player in a 3-4, he can be relied on to be stout against the run on the first two downs and penetrate on third down. He has the versatility to play end or nose tackle, if necessary. He is decent at shedding blocks when engaged face to face, but can be easily taken out of the play on trap blocks or double teams. Last year he had 55 tackles, 17.5 tackles for a loss, including 4.5 sacks, and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Draft Prospect - CB Trumaine Johnson (Montana)

Name: Trumaine Johnson

Position:  Cornerback

School: Montana

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 2nd
Analysis:
Trumaine Johnson is a big corner. He is listed somewhere between 6'2" and 6'3". Which is about the same height as Dre Kirkpatrick, but he is a good 20 lbs heavier; and it shows. In 33 games with the Grizz, Trumaine had 13 interceptions and 23 pass breakups. His 40 time was a little slow for a corner, 4.61, but that is understandable given his size and comes in within the top free safeties. He was a three sport athlete in high school and puts his leaping skills on display when making those picks. Montana frequently sent him on cornerback blitzes to pressure the quarterback and had a good success rate if he was blocked by a running back, as opposed to a tight end or tackle. Trumaine's skill allow him make the transition to free safety and would be a prime candidate to line up against an athletic tight end.

Draft Prospect - CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Name: Dre Kirkpatrick

Position:  Cornerback

School: Alabama

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round, 27th overall

Analysis:

Kirkpatrick was a starter on Alabama's historically great defense. His combination of size and speed at the corner position are outstanding. He is able to play man with bump and run coverage or drop into a zone and read the quaterback. He can be brought in to blitz and is excellent at shedding blocking receivers to contribute in the run game. He is not a ball hawk, but defends passes well and can use his size to poke the ball away. The thing that sticks out to me when I watch him play is he is completely unafraid to hit. There are several plays, one in particular against Arkansas comes to mind, where he just flies to the ball carrier and lays him out. His tackling form isn't outstanding and on the very next play he gets completely blocked out of the play, but I think those are exceptions and necessarily the norm. In my previous posts about looking at the roster as it currently stands I mentioned a cornerback that could play free safety and most importantly could cover/play man; I think if Kirkpatrick could add some bulk he is exactly who I envision.

Updated Salary Cap Info

I added Bobby Carpenter's $775,000/1 year contract to the salary cap page. Based on his salary, he is projected to be a solid special teams contributor and will compete with the likes of Fletcher and White to back up Spikes and Mayo.