Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: Preview

I was originally going to do these all as one post, but they were a little longer than I anticipated so I am breaking them up. To start us off, I wanted to mention the state of the cap for both the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

As the salary cap page shows the Patriots are doing well with over $10M in cap space with no major signings on the horizon. Any deals with players already on the roster would be expected to either lessen there cap hit for this year (i.e. a possible Welker deal), or add only a small increase (i.e. the Gronk deal).

In 2013, however, the cap situation is very different. First of all, nearly 40 players on the roster are not signed after 2012, while a significant number of them are recent free agent signings that aren't necessarily likely to make the 53 man roster, there are quite a few key players that have not been extended including: Welker, Patrick Chung, Kyle Love, Sebastian Vollmer, etc.  Also, Tom Brady's cap hit in 2013 is gigantic, a whopping $21.8M. This is over one sixth of the expected cap space next year. No player on the 2012 Patriots has a cap hit larger than $10M; Welker tops that list with his franchise tag at $9.5M. While a restructure or extension for Brady to reduce this huge number is not only possible, it is likely, I am going to be operating under the assumption that his contract will not be amended.

As I mentioned several key players are going to be free agents at the end of this season. I am going to present possible contracts that would seem reasonable to me. I will be trying to take into account the players skill, comparable contracts around the league, the positional depth, and other factors such as leadership and injury history. So far I have plans for: Patrick Chung, Sebastian Vollmer, Kyle Love, Julian Edelman, Kyle Arrington, Sterling Moore, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker. I'll be posting these throughout the week.

Adios Ochocinco

1. The Patriots Release WR Chad Ochocinco
With the first major cut of the offseason (but the fourth of the day), the Patriots informed Ochocinco that they are parting ways. After a disappointing season last year, (15 receptions, 276 yards, 1 TD) Ocho did what he could to stick around, including taking a significant paycut, leaving $2M on the table. But with the return of players like Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Deion Branch, receivers who have proven themselves in McDaniels' offense, this cut seemed inevitable. While he never blossomed as the receiver fans hoped he would be, Ochocinco acted like a true professional and a class act his entire time in New England. With the exception of the first game of the season last year, he never said anything that would grab a headline; and even after he was cut, his twitter account is filled with quotes like "Thoroughly enjoyed the oppurtunity to play for the "Patriot" organization... fans were fucking wicked awesome, I wish all of you the best..."

From a financial standpoint, the Patriots opened up about $2M in cap space this year, but put over $3M in dead cap space for the 2013 season. I'll get into this in a later post, but because the Patriots have so many players with expiring contracts this year they have a lot of cap space next year, but a lot of holes to fill as well.

2. Updated Salary Cap Page:
I have updated the salary cap page to reflect the changes to the roster since the draft.

The most notable signing in that time is RB Joseph Addai, the former Colt, who is added to the Patriots stable of running backs. There has been debate about just how many running/full backs the Patriots will keep this year with McDaniels' significant use of the screen game.

Notable cuts besides Ochocinco include: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the injury prone slot receiver who added insurance to the Welker situation, and DE/OLB Markell Carter. Carter was a star on the practice squad last year after being selected in the 6th round in the 2011 draft. Many expected him to make a significant improvement after he bulked up to 275 lbs, but with the signing of Trevor Scott and drafting of Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette, there seemed to be too many players ahead of him on the roster.

As of today, the Patriots currently have 87 players signed to the roster, and therefore, have 3 open spots to fill. Both DE Andre Carter and S James Ihedigbo, significant contributors to last years defense, remain unsigned, although both are recovering from injury this offseason.

The Roster Is Full

With the final three signings this past week, the Patriots have (or are soon to have) 90 players under contract. They added two running backs, undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden, out of Mississippi, and Joseph Addai, a veteran formerly with the Colts. They also added another OLB/DE "tweener" Justin Francis, an undrafted free agent from Rutgers. This is the third Rutgers product Belichick has acquired in as many years, the other two being CB Devin McCourty and WR Tiquan Underwood. Belichick's son plays lacrosse at Rutgers and he is known for scouting their football program while on campus.

The number of roster spots by position are as followed:

Offense:
Wide Receiver: 12
Center/Guard: 9
Tackle: 6
Running Back: 6
Quarterback: 4
Tight End: 4
Fullback: 2
Total: 43

Defense:
Defensive Line (DT/3-4 DE): 9
Pass Rusher (OLB/4-3 DE): 9
Inside Linebacker: 9
Cornerback: 8
Safety: 8
Total: 43

Special Teams:
Kickers: 2
Long Snapper: 1
Punter: 1
Total: 4

Compared to last season, there is a significant emphasis on the wide receiver and pass rushing position. Last season the focus was mostly on the defensive line, highlighted by the signings of Albert Haynesworth and Shaun Ellis. The offense and defense are evenly balanced with 43 players on each side of the ball. I would anticipate when the roster is eventually cut down to 53, that the same 1 to 1 balance would be applied. I think the most difficult cuts will be at wide receiver, defensive back, and inside linebacker. Whereas quarterback, tight end, and most of the offensive line are very clear cut.

Two Quick Thoughts

1. Junior Seau Is Found Shot In His House
Seau was a linebacker for the Patriots from 2006 to 2009. The future Hall of Famer was found dead in his house in San Diego this afternoon. Seau was the ultimate team player. He was a powerful leader in the locker room and backed up his speeches with his play. The 12 time pro bowler came to the Patriots hoping to win a Super Bowl, but fell just short in 2007. My thoughts go out to his family and friends. A great player and a better man.

2. WR Jabar Gaffney Has Reportedly Accepted an Offer From the Patriots
According to Mike Reiss' twitter, Jabar Gaffney will be a Patriot next season, or at least offseason. There are now 13 (!) wide receivers on the roster. Gaffney and the recently signed Dante Stallworth were among the many receivers used in the Patriots deadly spread attack in 2007. Josh McDaniels seems to be bringing in receivers he has trusted in the past. Gaffney has had solid since leaving the Patriots. He had 68 receptions for 947 yards and 5 touchdowns last year with the Redskins. The major aspect Gaffney does not bring is youth. He turned 31 this past December.

EDIT: According to Jason LaCanfora of the NFL Network it is a two year deal.

Two Free Agent Signings and Thoughts on the Few Remaining Spots

1. Defensive Lineman Re-Signed: Gerard Warren
It was reported yesterday that the Patriots re-signed defensive lineman Gerard Warren. Warren has been a rotational player that has provided solid depth on the line. He is a 10 year veteran who will likely have a spot on the final 53 man roster. He saw more playing time in 2010, when he was a defensive end in the base 3-4 defense; versus last year where he played as a tackle in sub packages. This signing adds depth to a defensive line that did not get addressed during the draft.

2. Undrafted Rookie Free Agent Signed: WR Matt Roark, Kentucky
Kentucky's twitter account announced that Matt Roark, a wide receiver, has signed with the Patriots. Roark is a huge wide receiver with decent speed for his size. He is 6'5", 225 lbs with a 4.72 40 time. For comparison,  Rob Gronkowski is 6'6" with a 4.70 40 time, but he weighs 260 lbs; and Aaron Hernandez is 6'3", 245 lbs with a 4.65 40 time.  Roark has some flexibility as he was also used as a wildcat quarterback and had decent production running the ball as well. This is the 12th wide receiver on the current roster, if you include Welker.

3. Thoughts on Remaining Roster Spots:
With these two signings, by my count 87 of the 90 possible roster spots are filled. With the three remaining spots, I think the defensive line, running back, and safety depth should all be filled.  Not counting outside linebacker type defensive ends, like Chandler Jones and Trevor Scott, there are 9 defensive lineman on the current roster. Of those 9, I only see four of them as locks. Vince Wilfork, Jonathan Fanene, Kyle Love, and Brandon Deaderick. I'll add Gerard Warren as a solid fifth option. For a 3-4 defense, there should be at least 6 big bodied lineman. Marcus Forston and Marcus Harrison are not likely to make the team, and will probably end up on the practice squad. Myron Pryor shows potential but cannot stay healthy. Rob Brace is a second round disappointment who is now on the bubble. Adding one more possibility here would help the team. As for safety, Yeremiah Bell, the former Dolphin, has already had contact with the Patriots and I think he would make sense, if the Patriots don't re-sign James Ihedigbo. Although it is reasonable for the Patriots to start with three running backs and a fullback once the season starts, I think they should add competition to running back as it is distinctly lacking any. They have brought in several backs for workouts, including Tim Hightower, Ryan Grant, and Joseph Addai. Kevin Faulk is also an option here. He is an all-time great Patriot and a lock for the Patriots HOF, but I personally think after 13 NFL seasons it is time for him to retire. Furthermore, unless the Patriots already have an idea of who will be returning kicks, a returner could also be a good pick up.

Updated Salary Cap Page

I have added all of the rookies to the salary cap page. The minimum base salary for rookies this year is $390,000. I based the signing bonuses on last years draft looking at both where they were drafted overall and their position. As the contracts are released I will update them. Also to note, the Patriots currently have 85 players on the roster after they sign all of their draft pick and Welker, leaving 5 more spots for free agents.

Also, with the announcement of Matt Light's retirement I removed his salary from the cap. The Pats bought out his remaining salary for $1.5M which will save them $5M in cap space. The $1.5M is reflected in the dead cap table.

Dan Koppen Signing and Matt Light Retiring

I added the new contract information for Dan Koppen to the salary cap page. While his cap hit looks large ($2.7 mil - 10th on the team), a vast majority of the salary comes from non-guaranteed incentives; and it is probable that his actual cap hit will be significantly less. For more information here is the link to ESPN.

 Also, according to Mike Florio at ProFootball Talk, Matt Light will be retiring. The announcement is not official so I will keep him on the roster for now. If he does retire, New England would open up $3.5M in cap space.

EDIT: According to Spotrac, Matt Light's buyout is only costing the team $1.5M and therefore saves the team $5M in cap space.

Needs By Position - Part 3/2

Ok, so I quickly wanted add special teams.

Special Teams:

Place Kicker:

Players Under Contract:

Stephen Gostkowski

Need - None

Gostkowski is an accurate kicker who was able to consistently get touchbacks even before the NFL moved the kickoff spot.

Punter:

Players Under Contract:
Zoltan Mesko

Need - None
Mesko is a young left-footed punter who may not be Andy Lee, but he is able to get consistently good hangtime.

Long Snapper:

Players Under Contract:

Danny Aiken

Need - None

After losing Lonie Paxton to the Broncos a few years ago, it took a while for the Pats to find a decent long snapper, but they found one in 2010 in Danny Aiken.

Punt Returner:

Players Under Contract:

Julian Edelman, Wes Welker

Need - Minor

Edelman returned most of the punts and did an adequate job. He returned one for a touchdown against the Chiefs and averaged about 10 yards a return, which is just about league average. An improvement is possible, but not necessary.

Kick Returner:

Players Under Contract:

Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Stevan Ridley

Need - Starter

The large number of players tried at this position is an indication to how poorly the Pats returned last year. They ranked 29th in average yards returned and lacked an explosive player that was elusive enough to make tacklers miss. I mentioned this position in combination with several other positions (RB, WR, CB), but I felt it warranted its own section because I think it is a significant need.

Special Teams Overall:

With the exception of kick returner, the Pats are fine. But I hope they are able to address that position in the draft.

Needs By Position - Part 2/2

This is the second installment looking at the current players under contract and how they apply to the draft and free agency.


Defense:

Defensive Tackle:

Players Under Contract:

Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Marcus Harrison

Need - Depth

You can never have too many lineman, offensive or defensive. The Pats defensive line, whether it is a 40 or 30 front is anchored by Vince Wilfork. The man is a freak of nature.  Kyle Love is a promising young undrafted free agent going on his third year. In 2010, Love's rookie season, when the Pats were having issues at defensive end, they moved Wilfork over and entrusted the nose to Love. Brace has been a disappointment so far and injuries have limited Pryor's development. Harrison seems to be someone with a legitimate chance to compete for a roster spot, particularly Brace's. Ultimately, if the Pats plan to be in a 3-4 defense for most of the time, the NT position is fairly solid. But with what they showed last season and their tendency to switch between 3 and 4 man fronts, another high caliber player is desired, particularly if they can play defensive end.

Defensive End:

Players Under Contract:

Jonathan Fanene, Brandon Deaderick, Christian Cox, Aaron Lavaris

Need - Starter

I made this list with the expectation with the assumption the Pats will be in a 3-4 defense because a 3-4 DE is very different from a 4-3 DE. Defensive end is one of the thinner positions on the team. Fanene, the former Cincinnati Bengal, is expected to be a starter. Deaderick, a seventh round draft pick in 2010, would be the other projected starter. Deaderick has proved himself worthy of roster spot, but having him starting at presumably LDE is troublesome. Furthermore, behind Fanene and Deaderick are Cox and Lavaris who will be fighting to make the practice squad. This is a position the Patriots have to address in the draft, hopefully with one of their first four picks. They have already taken a look at DT/DE Michael Brockers from LSU. 

Outside Linebacker:

Players Under Contract:

Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Trevor Scott, Markell Carter

Need - Starter

The weakest position on the roster, without a doubt. Ninkovich has been compared to Vrabel, partially because he wears the same number, but he has not produced on a consistent enough basis for me to agree. The playoff game against the Broncos was possibly his best performance to date and I look forward to him starting on the strong side going forward, but who plays across from him? Jermaine Cunningham had a so-so rookie season and all but disappeared last season. Trevor Scott, the former Raider, is being paid like a starter with a one-year $1.2 m contract. Markell Carter was a sixth round selection last year who failed to make an appearance on the field, but was awarded several times for his practice squad play. Belichick has never drafted an OLB in the first round, mostly due to teams over-valuing the position, and I don't expect him to change that this year. But I do think he needs to invest at least a second round pick in a player who can start opposite Ninkovich. Also to note, the Pats are still in touch with Andre Carter, but are waiting to see how he recovers from the quad injury that ended his season early last year.

Inside Linebacker:

Players Under Contract:

Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarapinian, Niko Koutouvides, Tracy White

Need - None

The deepest defensive position, mostly because many of the players are primarily special teams players. Jerod Mayo, known as Bill Jr. and Jerod Belichick in the locker room, is frequently called the "quarterback" of the defense. He calls the defensive plays and runs the show. He may not be the fastest linebacker or the best in coverage, but he's incredibly intelligent and does everything well. This past season, particularly the playoffs, were huge for Brandon Spikes. He cemented his position as the other starting ILB and hard hitting run stopper. He is a bit of a liability in coverage, but he has improved that area as well, i.e. intercepting Flacco's pass in the AFC championship game. Fletcher and the very recently signed Bobby Carpenter provide depth behind Mayo and Spikes, while Tarapinian, Koutouvides and White are all core special teams players. 

Corner Back:

Players Under Contract:

Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Marquis Cole, Bret Lockett, Malcom Williams

Need - Depth

Cornerback was an interesting position last year. Clearly, the secondary wasn't phenomenal, but it was difficult to tell whether the blame was on the cornerbacks, the lack of pass rush, or the lack of safety help. Most likely, the truth is a combination of all three. Devin McCourty took a step back last season allowing a significant number of touchdowns and long passes in his direction. Kyle Arrington wasn't too much better, but he was able to come down with seven interceptions. Ras-I Dowling is a speedy, tall cornerback who was drafted high, but had concerns about durability. He promptly got injured and put on IR for most of the season. He has the size, but not the bulk to be placed at free safety and so he is likely to stay at corner. Between those three, McCourty and Dowling project to the starters with Arrington defending the slot in nickel defenses. Moore, the savior of the AFC championship game, adds depth and competition behind them. Marquis Cole, the former Dolphin, is expected to provide depth and play special teams. While Lockett and Williams are likely training camp/practice squad players. I think the need at this position is depth because of Dowling's frailty and the issues they had at safety last season. I think a player that had the flexibility to play both corner and safety/kick return would be extremely valuable.

Safety:

Players Under Contract:

Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory, Sergio Brown, Josh Barrett, Ross Ventrone

Need - Starter

Safety, free safety in particular, is the second weakest position, slightly behind OLB. Chung is a solid strong safety, but was asked to act more as a free safety last year due to several cuts at the start of last season. Gregory was signed away from the Chargers and should provide a serviceable free safety if necessary, but should be considered more of a depth option. I am a firm believer that Sergio Brown should never take the field on defense, special teams is ok, but he is a huge liability in the passing game. He takes terrible angles and shows very poor tackling. Barrett is even further down the depth chart, coming onto the field only when Chung was out injured. Finally, Ventrone is a practice squad player, who was almost humorously released and resigned over 20 times last year! Seriously, 20! Unfortunately, the safety free agency and draft pool is small and there are quite a few teams that need safeties, including the Jets, Dolphins and Cowboys. I know Belichick typically goes for players that can do everything decently as opposed to one thing outstanding (i.e. pass rush specialists), but I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage. Obviously, tackling is important for a safety, as is speed, and size and so on, but I really think coverage should be the top priority. Also, it is important to note that the Pats have still not resigned James Ihedigbo, who started opposite Chung last season.

Defense Overall:

Unlike the offense, nearly every defensive position could use help, with the sole exception being ILB. I'm hoping that the defensive line, outside linebacker, and safety all to be addressed within the first three rounds.

Needs By Position - Part 1/2

Before I start posting about draft prospects, I wanted to start by looking at the current roster and identifying the state of each position.

Offense:

Quarterback:

Players Under Contract:
Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Mike Hartline

Need: - None
Quarterback is the most secure position on the roster. With the four players under contract, the Pats have everything you could ask for at the position. An elite starter in Tom Brady, a serviceable backup that the organization clearly has confidence in based on the second round tender in Brian Hoyer, a development project that shows promise in Ryan Mallett, and a practice squad body in Mike Hartline.

Offensive Tackle:

Players Under Contract:
Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix

Need - Slight depth
The biggest issue with the tackle position, and the whole offensive line in general, is uncertainty. Matt Light is strongly considering retirement and Sebastian Vollmer missed more than half of last season with a back injury. Behind them on the depth chart are two quality young sophomores, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. In the likely situation that Light retires, Solder can take over at LT and hopefully Vollmer starting at RT. However, that leaves Cannon as the only legitimate reserve, as Matt Kopa and Kyle Hix will likely be fighting for a practice squad spot. In the draft, I think the ideal candidate would be a later round prospect with guard/tackle flexibility that has raw skills but significant upside and then let Scarnecchia coach him up.

Offensive Guard/Center:

Players Under Contract:
Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Connolly, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas

Need: - Depth
Similar to the tackle position there is uncertainty. Brian Waters is also contemplating retirement, Logan Mankins underwent ACL surgery during the offseason and Dan Koppen is still a free agent.  Dan Connolly was signed to a 3 year/$10 million contract and is clearly anticipated to be a starter, the question is where? If Brian Waters, who had a Pro Bowl year at RG last season and was one of the top free agent pickups last year, foregoes retirement and stays, Connolly is the obvious start at center. But part of Connolly's value is his versatility and could be placed at RG, if Waters retires.The Robert Gallery signing was probably my favorite this offseason with the exception of Jonathan Fanene on the defensive line. He provides a BIG, strong replacement for Mankins at LG for the beginning of the season and can be a consistent back up when he returns, possibly even filling in at RT if necessary. Nick McDonald performed adamantly in his sole start at center against the Redskins last season and Donald Thomas is solely a depth/practice squad option. As I said, I think an offensive lineman with the versatility to play multiple spots and significant upside would be a solid 3rd or 4th round draft pickup.

Running Back:

Players Under Contract:

Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Eric Kettani

Need - None

I may be in the minority, but I feel like the running back position is fine. The Patriots are not a ground and pound team. I was intrigued with the idea of bringing in Michael Bush in the offseason, but since he landed with the Bears, I don't think the position needs to be addressed in free agency or the draft. Stevan Ridley showed promise with the exception of the two fumbles late last season. Danny Woodhead isn't explosive or a workhorse, but has good hands and blocking ideal for a third down back. I think the wildcard is Shane Vereen. He was drafted to be a speedy back who could get to the edge and I am interested to see what he can do. Eric Kettani is a RB/FB hybrid who can provide depth, possibly a practice squad player. The only exception to addressing RB in the draft is if the player would provide a legitimate kick return threat, i.e. Florida's Chris Rainey.

Fullback:

Players Under Contract:

Spencer Larsen, Tony Fiammetta

Need - None

A development of this offseason is the return of the fullback position to the Pats offense. Spencer Larsen signed a two year deal is expected to make the game day roster. Tony Fiammetta (and Eric Kettani to an extent) will provide training camp competition.

Tight End:

Players Under Contract:

Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells

Need - Practice Squad Body

The Patriots along with teams like the Saints, Packers, 49ers, and Chargers, have redefined the role of the tight end in recent history.  The Pats have two incredibly athletic tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who can produce all over the field. But they are not without fault, Hernandez has the tendency to  put the ball on the turf while scrapping for extra yards and Gronk has taken ridiculously hard hits due to his propensity to fight off would be tacklers. Depth was an issue last year, as exemplified in the Super Bowl, due to both practice squad players being snatched up by division rivals. The Pats addressed the issue by signing Daniel Fells. The former Bronco was asked to stay in and block most of the time last year, however,  with limited success, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. He will likely be in for the Pats 3 TE goal line/short yardage sets, but otherwise he provides depth. The tight end position is set with the possible exception of a free agent for the practice squad, undrafted rookie or otherwise.

Wide Receiver:

Players Under Contract:

Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Anthony Gonzalez, Donte Stallworth, Tiquan Underwood, Britt Davis

Need - Development

The most polarizing position on the Pats roster, with the possible exception of a pass rushing OLB.  Many fans over the offseason were screaming for the Pats to sign Mike Wallace. I was not in that camp. With the contract he would of required and Wes Welker's franchise tag, 20% of their cap space would have been devoted to the wide receiver position. That is just not good business. Brandon Lloyd, on the other hand, was possibly the biggest steal of the offseason. With Pierre Garcon getting $42.5 million/5 years, $12 m/3 years is outright criminal.  This is one of several positions the Pats seem to be stock piling to develop competition during training camp. There are ten players under contract and the significant possibility of another one on the way is a lot of bodies. Historically the Pats have kept between 6 or 7 roster spots for receivers. With the addition of the fullback and having three tight ends, the number will probably be 6. Welker and Lloyd are practical locks to be starters. Slater was a special teams captain and was rewarded with a $5.4 m/3 year deal.  Edelman has been Welker's backup and the main punt returner. Underwood and Davis are likely practice squad players. This leaves two spots for Branch, Ocho, Gonzalez, Stallworth, or a possible draft prospect.  I am not going to speculate who will get cut here, but I will say that youth is a noticeable deficiency among the group, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Ocho, and Stallworth are all over 30. Although the Patriots have not been good at drafting wide receivers under Belichick's tenure (Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price to name a few), I think they should target a big receiver, ideally with kick return capabilities. I don't think this position should be targeted within the first two rounds, unless the value is just too good to pass up. The free agents have given Brady enough weapons for this year, but the draft is the best place to address the future. Something to note, while McDaniels was in Denver, he drafted Demaryius Thomas who has shown great speed and is developing into a very good receiver. Granted he was a first round pick, but Eric Decker also has had significant success. It might behoove BB to consult McDaniels when it comes to the position.

Offense Overall:

Overall, the offense is fairly sound. Not surprising for offense that ranked second in total yards and third in scoring. They could use depth at guard/tackle, especially due to the uncertainty at the position, and a young wide receiver who could possibly contribute in the return game.