Thoughts on the First Round and the Rest of the Draft

There are a few things I want to touch on particularly because I was not able to finish my prospects posts.

1. I have one word to describe the Pats draft so far: confusing. Not to be mistaken with surprising. Belichick is known for throwing a curveball come draft day, but it is a curveball that is usually risk averse and conservative. The Pats wildly deviated from the typical draft strategy in several ways.

- They drafted a pass rusher in the first round.
- They used both of their first round selections.
- They traded up TWICE.
- They addressed a position that might be the deepest on the roster (ILB).

Just confusing.


2. Pick #21: Chandler Jones DE/OLB - Syracuse, Grade: B
Jones struck me as second round player, but had gotten a lot of buzz this week. He's a big guy that brings versatility, a quality the Patriots covet. He is able to play defensive end in a four man front, outside linebacker in a three man front, and in nickel packages on third down could even play defensive end in a three man front. Watching his film, he provides a decent pass rush and smarts, but seems like a liability in the run game. I gave the selection a B because although he definitely fits a need and looks like a solid player, the pick seemed high, they gave up a third round selection to move up, and other similar players (Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw) were available at the Pats original selection, #27.


3. Pick #25: Donta Hightower ILB/OLB - Alabama, Grade: C+
I do not understand this selection. Hightower looks like a great player, true. An excellent run stopping thumper for first and second down. But he reminds me of Brandon Spikes, a run stopper who can blitz the A gap, but is weak in coverage. Spikes, who the Patriots used a second round pick on in 2010, still has two years on his contract. In a 3-4, the Patriots have Spikes and Jerod Mayo, their leader and second best player, at inside linebacker. Mayo is also one of the few players signed past 2013. In the Needs posts I posted before the draft, I mentioned that inside linebacker was the only position on defense that didn't need anything. You can't even claim they were just selecting the best player available because they traded UP to get him. This pick doesn't get an F for two reasons: first, watching Hightower's tape he was exceptional at stopping the run and was able to line up at outside linebacker on third down to rush the passer, and second, because it prevented him from going to the Raven's where I think he would have fit perfectly and wreaked havoc. (Hence why they immediately traded down afterwards).


4. AFC East Grades:
Miami Dolphins: #8 Overall: Ryan Tannehill QB - Texas A&M, Grade: D
Buffalo Bills: #10 Overall: Stephon Gillmore CB - South Carolina, Grade: A
NY Jets: #16 Overall: Quentin Coples DE - North Carolina, Grade: C-

A consolation for the Pats sub-par draft, the AFC East in general didn't do very well. The Dolphins picked who everyone thought they would, in Tannehill and the Jets took Coples both have bust written all over them. The Bills, however, selected a solid cornerback to help their woeful secondary.


5. Rest of the Draft:
Overall, it seems the Pats are coveting versatility. Jones can play end or outside and Hightower can move inside or outside for either front. Projecting that to the rest of the draft I would hope for a hybrid defensive tackle/end and a safety/corner. As they currently stand, the Pats have two selections in the second round and that is it. I would hope they trade down with at least one of them as I think they have more holes to fill than just two and although they are always very active in the undrafted free agent market, there are still several viable prospects.


6. Prospects:
Speaking of prospects here are several that I still have my eye on:
Devon Still, DT - Penn State (2nd)
Jerel Worthy, DT - Michigan State (2nd)
Josh Chapman, DT - Alabama (3rd)
Billy Winn, DE - Boise State (3rd)
Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS - Montana (2nd)
Josh Robinson, CB - Central Florida (2nd)
Brandon Boykin, CB/KR - Georgia (2nd)
George Iloka, FS - Boise State (3rd)
Brandon Hardin, FS - Oregon State (5th)
Senio Kelemete, G - Washington (4th)
James Brown, G - Troy (4th)
Brandon Washington, G - Miami (FL) (5th)
Chris Owusu, WR/KR - Stanford (4th)
Joe Adams, WR/KR - Arkansas (4th)

Draft Prospect - DL Devon Still (Penn State)

Photo: Matthew O'Haren/Icon SMI

Name: Devon Still

Position:  Defensive Tackle

School: Penn State

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round

Analysis:
Devon is the ideal size for what the Pats look for in a 3-4 defensive end, 6'5" 300 lbs. He doesn't have great speed and isn't going to chase anyone down from behind, but he has a terrific first step and initial quickness. At Penn State, Devon played in a 4-3 front where he would line up as a one gap 3 technique. This would allow him to use his quick first step to penetrate into the backfield and disrupt plays. Looking at his games against Alabama and Illinois there are several occasions where he nearly sacks the quarterback on a run play. Think about that. This penetration allows him to be a 3 down player in a 3-4, he can be relied on to be stout against the run on the first two downs and penetrate on third down. He has the versatility to play end or nose tackle, if necessary. He is decent at shedding blocks when engaged face to face, but can be easily taken out of the play on trap blocks or double teams. Last year he had 55 tackles, 17.5 tackles for a loss, including 4.5 sacks, and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Draft Prospect - CB Trumaine Johnson (Montana)

Name: Trumaine Johnson

Position:  Cornerback

School: Montana

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 2nd
Analysis:
Trumaine Johnson is a big corner. He is listed somewhere between 6'2" and 6'3". Which is about the same height as Dre Kirkpatrick, but he is a good 20 lbs heavier; and it shows. In 33 games with the Grizz, Trumaine had 13 interceptions and 23 pass breakups. His 40 time was a little slow for a corner, 4.61, but that is understandable given his size and comes in within the top free safeties. He was a three sport athlete in high school and puts his leaping skills on display when making those picks. Montana frequently sent him on cornerback blitzes to pressure the quarterback and had a good success rate if he was blocked by a running back, as opposed to a tight end or tackle. Trumaine's skill allow him make the transition to free safety and would be a prime candidate to line up against an athletic tight end.

Draft Prospect - CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Name: Dre Kirkpatrick

Position:  Cornerback

School: Alabama

Where the Pats Should Draft Him: 1st Round, 27th overall

Analysis:

Kirkpatrick was a starter on Alabama's historically great defense. His combination of size and speed at the corner position are outstanding. He is able to play man with bump and run coverage or drop into a zone and read the quaterback. He can be brought in to blitz and is excellent at shedding blocking receivers to contribute in the run game. He is not a ball hawk, but defends passes well and can use his size to poke the ball away. The thing that sticks out to me when I watch him play is he is completely unafraid to hit. There are several plays, one in particular against Arkansas comes to mind, where he just flies to the ball carrier and lays him out. His tackling form isn't outstanding and on the very next play he gets completely blocked out of the play, but I think those are exceptions and necessarily the norm. In my previous posts about looking at the roster as it currently stands I mentioned a cornerback that could play free safety and most importantly could cover/play man; I think if Kirkpatrick could add some bulk he is exactly who I envision.

Draft Prospects Posts

Leading up to the draft, I will be posting about draft prospects. What I will discuss are the pros and cons of each player and when I think the Pats should draft him. I will not speculate whether or not the prospect will be available at the spot I suggest and I (typically) will not be saying which specific pick they should use, as I expect the Patriots to stick to their strategy of trading picks into future drafts to maximize value. I will be focusing mostly on the four positions I highlighted in my previous posts: OLB, S/CB, DL, G/T.

Needs By Position - Part 3/2

Ok, so I quickly wanted add special teams.

Special Teams:

Place Kicker:

Players Under Contract:

Stephen Gostkowski

Need - None

Gostkowski is an accurate kicker who was able to consistently get touchbacks even before the NFL moved the kickoff spot.

Punter:

Players Under Contract:
Zoltan Mesko

Need - None
Mesko is a young left-footed punter who may not be Andy Lee, but he is able to get consistently good hangtime.

Long Snapper:

Players Under Contract:

Danny Aiken

Need - None

After losing Lonie Paxton to the Broncos a few years ago, it took a while for the Pats to find a decent long snapper, but they found one in 2010 in Danny Aiken.

Punt Returner:

Players Under Contract:

Julian Edelman, Wes Welker

Need - Minor

Edelman returned most of the punts and did an adequate job. He returned one for a touchdown against the Chiefs and averaged about 10 yards a return, which is just about league average. An improvement is possible, but not necessary.

Kick Returner:

Players Under Contract:

Danny Woodhead, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Stevan Ridley

Need - Starter

The large number of players tried at this position is an indication to how poorly the Pats returned last year. They ranked 29th in average yards returned and lacked an explosive player that was elusive enough to make tacklers miss. I mentioned this position in combination with several other positions (RB, WR, CB), but I felt it warranted its own section because I think it is a significant need.

Special Teams Overall:

With the exception of kick returner, the Pats are fine. But I hope they are able to address that position in the draft.

Needs By Position - Part 2/2

This is the second installment looking at the current players under contract and how they apply to the draft and free agency.


Defense:

Defensive Tackle:

Players Under Contract:

Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Marcus Harrison

Need - Depth

You can never have too many lineman, offensive or defensive. The Pats defensive line, whether it is a 40 or 30 front is anchored by Vince Wilfork. The man is a freak of nature.  Kyle Love is a promising young undrafted free agent going on his third year. In 2010, Love's rookie season, when the Pats were having issues at defensive end, they moved Wilfork over and entrusted the nose to Love. Brace has been a disappointment so far and injuries have limited Pryor's development. Harrison seems to be someone with a legitimate chance to compete for a roster spot, particularly Brace's. Ultimately, if the Pats plan to be in a 3-4 defense for most of the time, the NT position is fairly solid. But with what they showed last season and their tendency to switch between 3 and 4 man fronts, another high caliber player is desired, particularly if they can play defensive end.

Defensive End:

Players Under Contract:

Jonathan Fanene, Brandon Deaderick, Christian Cox, Aaron Lavaris

Need - Starter

I made this list with the expectation with the assumption the Pats will be in a 3-4 defense because a 3-4 DE is very different from a 4-3 DE. Defensive end is one of the thinner positions on the team. Fanene, the former Cincinnati Bengal, is expected to be a starter. Deaderick, a seventh round draft pick in 2010, would be the other projected starter. Deaderick has proved himself worthy of roster spot, but having him starting at presumably LDE is troublesome. Furthermore, behind Fanene and Deaderick are Cox and Lavaris who will be fighting to make the practice squad. This is a position the Patriots have to address in the draft, hopefully with one of their first four picks. They have already taken a look at DT/DE Michael Brockers from LSU. 

Outside Linebacker:

Players Under Contract:

Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Trevor Scott, Markell Carter

Need - Starter

The weakest position on the roster, without a doubt. Ninkovich has been compared to Vrabel, partially because he wears the same number, but he has not produced on a consistent enough basis for me to agree. The playoff game against the Broncos was possibly his best performance to date and I look forward to him starting on the strong side going forward, but who plays across from him? Jermaine Cunningham had a so-so rookie season and all but disappeared last season. Trevor Scott, the former Raider, is being paid like a starter with a one-year $1.2 m contract. Markell Carter was a sixth round selection last year who failed to make an appearance on the field, but was awarded several times for his practice squad play. Belichick has never drafted an OLB in the first round, mostly due to teams over-valuing the position, and I don't expect him to change that this year. But I do think he needs to invest at least a second round pick in a player who can start opposite Ninkovich. Also to note, the Pats are still in touch with Andre Carter, but are waiting to see how he recovers from the quad injury that ended his season early last year.

Inside Linebacker:

Players Under Contract:

Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarapinian, Niko Koutouvides, Tracy White

Need - None

The deepest defensive position, mostly because many of the players are primarily special teams players. Jerod Mayo, known as Bill Jr. and Jerod Belichick in the locker room, is frequently called the "quarterback" of the defense. He calls the defensive plays and runs the show. He may not be the fastest linebacker or the best in coverage, but he's incredibly intelligent and does everything well. This past season, particularly the playoffs, were huge for Brandon Spikes. He cemented his position as the other starting ILB and hard hitting run stopper. He is a bit of a liability in coverage, but he has improved that area as well, i.e. intercepting Flacco's pass in the AFC championship game. Fletcher and the very recently signed Bobby Carpenter provide depth behind Mayo and Spikes, while Tarapinian, Koutouvides and White are all core special teams players. 

Corner Back:

Players Under Contract:

Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Marquis Cole, Bret Lockett, Malcom Williams

Need - Depth

Cornerback was an interesting position last year. Clearly, the secondary wasn't phenomenal, but it was difficult to tell whether the blame was on the cornerbacks, the lack of pass rush, or the lack of safety help. Most likely, the truth is a combination of all three. Devin McCourty took a step back last season allowing a significant number of touchdowns and long passes in his direction. Kyle Arrington wasn't too much better, but he was able to come down with seven interceptions. Ras-I Dowling is a speedy, tall cornerback who was drafted high, but had concerns about durability. He promptly got injured and put on IR for most of the season. He has the size, but not the bulk to be placed at free safety and so he is likely to stay at corner. Between those three, McCourty and Dowling project to the starters with Arrington defending the slot in nickel defenses. Moore, the savior of the AFC championship game, adds depth and competition behind them. Marquis Cole, the former Dolphin, is expected to provide depth and play special teams. While Lockett and Williams are likely training camp/practice squad players. I think the need at this position is depth because of Dowling's frailty and the issues they had at safety last season. I think a player that had the flexibility to play both corner and safety/kick return would be extremely valuable.

Safety:

Players Under Contract:

Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory, Sergio Brown, Josh Barrett, Ross Ventrone

Need - Starter

Safety, free safety in particular, is the second weakest position, slightly behind OLB. Chung is a solid strong safety, but was asked to act more as a free safety last year due to several cuts at the start of last season. Gregory was signed away from the Chargers and should provide a serviceable free safety if necessary, but should be considered more of a depth option. I am a firm believer that Sergio Brown should never take the field on defense, special teams is ok, but he is a huge liability in the passing game. He takes terrible angles and shows very poor tackling. Barrett is even further down the depth chart, coming onto the field only when Chung was out injured. Finally, Ventrone is a practice squad player, who was almost humorously released and resigned over 20 times last year! Seriously, 20! Unfortunately, the safety free agency and draft pool is small and there are quite a few teams that need safeties, including the Jets, Dolphins and Cowboys. I know Belichick typically goes for players that can do everything decently as opposed to one thing outstanding (i.e. pass rush specialists), but I think the FS prospect needs to be good to great in coverage. Obviously, tackling is important for a safety, as is speed, and size and so on, but I really think coverage should be the top priority. Also, it is important to note that the Pats have still not resigned James Ihedigbo, who started opposite Chung last season.

Defense Overall:

Unlike the offense, nearly every defensive position could use help, with the sole exception being ILB. I'm hoping that the defensive line, outside linebacker, and safety all to be addressed within the first three rounds.

Needs By Position - Part 1/2

Before I start posting about draft prospects, I wanted to start by looking at the current roster and identifying the state of each position.

Offense:

Quarterback:

Players Under Contract:
Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Mike Hartline

Need: - None
Quarterback is the most secure position on the roster. With the four players under contract, the Pats have everything you could ask for at the position. An elite starter in Tom Brady, a serviceable backup that the organization clearly has confidence in based on the second round tender in Brian Hoyer, a development project that shows promise in Ryan Mallett, and a practice squad body in Mike Hartline.

Offensive Tackle:

Players Under Contract:
Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix

Need - Slight depth
The biggest issue with the tackle position, and the whole offensive line in general, is uncertainty. Matt Light is strongly considering retirement and Sebastian Vollmer missed more than half of last season with a back injury. Behind them on the depth chart are two quality young sophomores, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. In the likely situation that Light retires, Solder can take over at LT and hopefully Vollmer starting at RT. However, that leaves Cannon as the only legitimate reserve, as Matt Kopa and Kyle Hix will likely be fighting for a practice squad spot. In the draft, I think the ideal candidate would be a later round prospect with guard/tackle flexibility that has raw skills but significant upside and then let Scarnecchia coach him up.

Offensive Guard/Center:

Players Under Contract:
Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Dan Connolly, Robert Gallery, Nick McDonald, Donald Thomas

Need: - Depth
Similar to the tackle position there is uncertainty. Brian Waters is also contemplating retirement, Logan Mankins underwent ACL surgery during the offseason and Dan Koppen is still a free agent.  Dan Connolly was signed to a 3 year/$10 million contract and is clearly anticipated to be a starter, the question is where? If Brian Waters, who had a Pro Bowl year at RG last season and was one of the top free agent pickups last year, foregoes retirement and stays, Connolly is the obvious start at center. But part of Connolly's value is his versatility and could be placed at RG, if Waters retires.The Robert Gallery signing was probably my favorite this offseason with the exception of Jonathan Fanene on the defensive line. He provides a BIG, strong replacement for Mankins at LG for the beginning of the season and can be a consistent back up when he returns, possibly even filling in at RT if necessary. Nick McDonald performed adamantly in his sole start at center against the Redskins last season and Donald Thomas is solely a depth/practice squad option. As I said, I think an offensive lineman with the versatility to play multiple spots and significant upside would be a solid 3rd or 4th round draft pickup.

Running Back:

Players Under Contract:

Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Eric Kettani

Need - None

I may be in the minority, but I feel like the running back position is fine. The Patriots are not a ground and pound team. I was intrigued with the idea of bringing in Michael Bush in the offseason, but since he landed with the Bears, I don't think the position needs to be addressed in free agency or the draft. Stevan Ridley showed promise with the exception of the two fumbles late last season. Danny Woodhead isn't explosive or a workhorse, but has good hands and blocking ideal for a third down back. I think the wildcard is Shane Vereen. He was drafted to be a speedy back who could get to the edge and I am interested to see what he can do. Eric Kettani is a RB/FB hybrid who can provide depth, possibly a practice squad player. The only exception to addressing RB in the draft is if the player would provide a legitimate kick return threat, i.e. Florida's Chris Rainey.

Fullback:

Players Under Contract:

Spencer Larsen, Tony Fiammetta

Need - None

A development of this offseason is the return of the fullback position to the Pats offense. Spencer Larsen signed a two year deal is expected to make the game day roster. Tony Fiammetta (and Eric Kettani to an extent) will provide training camp competition.

Tight End:

Players Under Contract:

Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Daniel Fells

Need - Practice Squad Body

The Patriots along with teams like the Saints, Packers, 49ers, and Chargers, have redefined the role of the tight end in recent history.  The Pats have two incredibly athletic tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who can produce all over the field. But they are not without fault, Hernandez has the tendency to  put the ball on the turf while scrapping for extra yards and Gronk has taken ridiculously hard hits due to his propensity to fight off would be tacklers. Depth was an issue last year, as exemplified in the Super Bowl, due to both practice squad players being snatched up by division rivals. The Pats addressed the issue by signing Daniel Fells. The former Bronco was asked to stay in and block most of the time last year, however,  with limited success, according to Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. He will likely be in for the Pats 3 TE goal line/short yardage sets, but otherwise he provides depth. The tight end position is set with the possible exception of a free agent for the practice squad, undrafted rookie or otherwise.

Wide Receiver:

Players Under Contract:

Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Anthony Gonzalez, Donte Stallworth, Tiquan Underwood, Britt Davis

Need - Development

The most polarizing position on the Pats roster, with the possible exception of a pass rushing OLB.  Many fans over the offseason were screaming for the Pats to sign Mike Wallace. I was not in that camp. With the contract he would of required and Wes Welker's franchise tag, 20% of their cap space would have been devoted to the wide receiver position. That is just not good business. Brandon Lloyd, on the other hand, was possibly the biggest steal of the offseason. With Pierre Garcon getting $42.5 million/5 years, $12 m/3 years is outright criminal.  This is one of several positions the Pats seem to be stock piling to develop competition during training camp. There are ten players under contract and the significant possibility of another one on the way is a lot of bodies. Historically the Pats have kept between 6 or 7 roster spots for receivers. With the addition of the fullback and having three tight ends, the number will probably be 6. Welker and Lloyd are practical locks to be starters. Slater was a special teams captain and was rewarded with a $5.4 m/3 year deal.  Edelman has been Welker's backup and the main punt returner. Underwood and Davis are likely practice squad players. This leaves two spots for Branch, Ocho, Gonzalez, Stallworth, or a possible draft prospect.  I am not going to speculate who will get cut here, but I will say that youth is a noticeable deficiency among the group, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Ocho, and Stallworth are all over 30. Although the Patriots have not been good at drafting wide receivers under Belichick's tenure (Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price to name a few), I think they should target a big receiver, ideally with kick return capabilities. I don't think this position should be targeted within the first two rounds, unless the value is just too good to pass up. The free agents have given Brady enough weapons for this year, but the draft is the best place to address the future. Something to note, while McDaniels was in Denver, he drafted Demaryius Thomas who has shown great speed and is developing into a very good receiver. Granted he was a first round pick, but Eric Decker also has had significant success. It might behoove BB to consult McDaniels when it comes to the position.

Offense Overall:

Overall, the offense is fairly sound. Not surprising for offense that ranked second in total yards and third in scoring. They could use depth at guard/tackle, especially due to the uncertainty at the position, and a young wide receiver who could possibly contribute in the return game.