Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: WR/PR Julian Edelman

 Source: Nick Laham/Getty Images North America

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013


I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating, Julian Edelman has been one of my favorite Patriots players for a few reasons. To start, he embodies the "do your job" mantra of Belichick, no more evident than this past year when he channeled his inner Troy Brown and made significant contributions in all three phases of the game: offense (wide receiver), defense (slot cornerback), and special teams (punt returner). But what really does it for me, is his complete immersion into the other Boston sports. ESPNBoston's Patriots page has a twitter feed with several players, including Edelman, and I am always pleasantly surprised with how genuinely interested he is the other teams.

Now his love of the other Boston sports teams has absolutely nothing to do with his contract situation, but his embodiment of Belichick's mantra does. Edelman has not particularly impressed as a receiver, 11 receptions for 120 yards over the past two years, after his promising rookie season, 37 receptions for 359 yards. This is mostly due to two factors: he is backing up the best slot receiver in football, Wes Welker, who has shown to be incredibly durable considering the vicious hits he takes in the middle of the field; and after his rookie season the Patriots drafted two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, whose significant play in the slot have limited Edelman's ability to get on the field. This past season he only played 13.3% of the offensive snaps, according to Mike Reiss of ESPN. Even though his statistics are not impressive, Welker's contract situation is still up in the air and it is definitely beneficial having someone on the team who Brady trusts and has shown he can step into Welker's shoes and fill them out nicely (see playoff game versus the Ravens in 2009).

Edelman took over returning punts from Welker in 2010 and since then he has been slightly above average; he ranked 13th in the league this past season with an average of 10.3 yards per return, and took one to the house against Kansas City. He doesn't make special teams units afraid like Devin Hester, but he is a solid contributor.

Finally, if all goes well Edelman should never take another snap on defense. Even after Troy Brown's impressive stint at defensive back in the 2004 championship season, he was not called upon again. Still this does add to his value slightly in that it proves he is a team player and, although this sounds cliche, he is a "football player." By that I mean he loves the game and will do anything that is asked of him, a trait the Patriots covet.

Proposed Contract: $3.7M/3 years, $800k guaranteed
This contract is fairly similar to the one just offered to Matthew Slater. Slater's is a bit higher, but I gave him that nod as he is the captain of the special teams unit and is one of the best special teams coverage players in the NFL (3rd in special teams tackles). Edelman does many things above average, but nothing outstanding. He is not irreplaceable, but he provides definite value, including leverage against Welker. This is cap friendly deal for the Patriots as his cap hit is never larger than $1.4M, yet Edelman makes more than twice what he has over the past four years.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB/S Sterling Moore

AP Photo/Winslow Townson

Exclusive Rights Free Agent in 2013


Sterling Moore is most well known among Patriots fans for his controversial, yet spectacular, play in the endzone against Lee Evans at the end of the AFC Championship game. It is difficult to evaluate Sterling Moore's play because he wasn't on the field much for the Patriots. Due to the multiple injuries in the defensive backfield last year, the Patriots were constantly shuffling people around, particularly at safety. Sterling, along with Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater, and Sergio Brown all took snaps at Chung's FS spot, while Antwan Molden, Julian Edelman, and Sterling again took over the corner position several time. Moore really started to come into favor towards the end of the season and in the playoffs. He had 8 passes defended, including 2 interceptions, in the last 4 games (including 3 playoff games).

He does not have great size, 5'10", and is best suited in the slot backing up Arrington with the flexibility to play safety. Moore is not a lock to make the roster and needs to continue to produce on the field to stick around, but he has shown promise and he is a young player who the Patriots can keep for little to no financial risk.

Exclusive Rights Tender: $555k

Proposed Contract: $1.9M/2 years, $500k guaranteed, $1M in escalators
If Sterling is able to stay on the team this upcoming season, he is almost guaranteed to receive the exclusive rights tender. The question is whether or not he receives an extension before the start of the 2013 season, or if he plays under the tender and becomes a restricted free agent for 2014. I based this proposed contract almost exclusively on the one Kyle Arrington signed before the 2010 season, as I see many similarities in their situation.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: CB Kyle Arrington

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013
Kyle Arrington is in an interesting place from a contract perspective. On the one hand, he was one of the few bright spots in New England's secondary this past season. He was a sure tackler, placing second on the team in total tackles with 88, including 66 solo, and was 9th best among all defensive backs in broken tackle rate (source,  Patrick Chung was 7th). He was the teams best pass defender, leading the league with 7 interceptions and the team with 15 passes defended. 


On the other hand, coming into the season Arrington was expected to be fourth on the Patriots depth chart at cornerback behind Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, and Ras-I Dowling. Unfortunately, due to the regressed play from Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden being cut, and the season ending injury to Ras-I Dowling, Arrington was forced into a starting role in the secondary. While he performed adequately this past season, he has not done it consistently. He was a significant liability two years ago, and if Ras-I Dowling comes back healthy this year, he is likely to usurp Arrington as the starter.


This then leads to the question, do the Patriots pay him starter money or not. The Patriots tend to be particularly frugal at the cornerback position; and as last year showed they're not afraid give significant reps to players from the scrap heap or even offense. (see: Antwan Molden, Sterling Moore, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater) Arrington fits better in the slot as his smaller size (5'10") can be a liability against bigger receivers. Alfonzo Dennard, a 7th round draft pick, has the skills to compete for the starting slot job, but will likely be expected to add depth instead.


Finally, not to be disregarded Arrington is a consistent and solid contributor on special teams.


Proposed New Contract: $6.5M/2 years, $2M guaranteed, $1.5M in escalators
To quickly clarify this contract, I imagine Arrington receiving a $2M signing bonus (the guaranteed amount), a $2M base salary in 2013 and $2.5M in 2014, with the possibility of both of those salary numbers increasing (the $1.5M in escalators) based on incentives such as play time, being voted to the Pro Bowl, and/or getting a certain number of interceptions.

Ultimately, the value of this contract and whether Arrington signs it is going to depend heavily on two things: his play this upcoming season, and Ras-I Dowling's health. If the Ras-I Dowling stays healthy and plays well,  I would not be surprised to see Kyle Arrington walk in free agency. I think the Patriots would have more leverage in that situation and they would try to get away with underpaying him. They have replacement options in Alfonzo Dennard and Sterling Moore and can address his leaving in free agency or the draft.

However, if Dowling continues to have health issues and/or Moore and Dennard are unable to contribute, the Patriots may have to sweeten the deal to keep him around.

New Page: Glossary

I've come to the realization that it might be helpful to have a glossary of phrases that I frequently use on this blog. This off-season I have been using a broad vocabulary related to contracts that are definitely not layman terms, so I will do my best to keep the glossary updated. I will continue to add to it terms that I think are not considered general knowledge. As usual, any input on which terms I should elaborate on would be appreciated.

What is the Difference Between a Restricted and an Unrestricted Free Agent?

I wanted to take a break from fabricating contracts to explain what the difference is between a restricted and an unrestricted free agent, particularly how it applies to contract negotiations. I'll also mention some other possible contract situations, such as, exclusive rights free agents and the franchise tag.

Unrestricted Free Agent:

An unrestricted free agent is, just as it sounds, unrestricted. They are able to sign with anyone and the previous team has no leverage. The vast majority of free agents are unrestricted. To qualify for unrestricted free agent status, a player must have accrued (played or been on injured reserve for 6+ games) at least 4 seasons.

This player is effectively on the open market and if he is in demand, he can get teams into a bidding war to get the best contract. This is how DE Mario Williams was able to receive a 6 year/$96M contract with the Bills. The Patriots rarely go after the high profile unrestricted free agents. As most teams try to do, the Patriots frequently try and extend their key players before they reach the open market (see: Rob Gronkowski), but that doesn't always work (see: Wes Welker). The only real bargaining tool a front office can use against unrestricted free agency is the franchise tag, which has been placed on Welker this year.

Franchise Tag:
A team is allowed to franchise tag one player a year. This player is given a one-year guaranteed contract whose value depends on the type of tag; exclusive (no other team can give an offer sheet): valued at the average salary of players tagged at a certain position during the past five years, non-exclusive (another team can give an offer but must give up two first round picks): valued at the average of the top five salaries of last season at his position. Most players dislike playing under the franchise tag as they prefer long term security over a single year contract. The only leverage a player has over the franchise tag is holding out during training camp and in extreme cases the beginning of the season. Under the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) significantly heavier fines can be applied to players who attempt to hold out, diminishing their leverage in these situations further.

Welker has signed his franchise tender and although he has made several comments that he is unhappy about the lack of a long term deal, he has attended every mandatory practice and does not plan on missing any time.

Compensatory Picks:
The only compensation a team can receive for having an unrestricted free agent walk in free agency is a "compensatory pick" in the next years draft. These compensatory picks are evaluated after each season before the draft. A total of 32 compensatory pick, ranging from rounds 3 to 7, are given to teams around the league that lost more unrestricted free agents than they gained. The position of the pick is determined by the size of the contract, playing time, and postseason honors of the player that walked. For example, I would expect the Texans to receive multiple picks next season for losing: Mario Williams to the Bills (3rd round), Eric Winston to the Chiefs (5th round), and Mike Brisiel to the Raiders (5th round). 

Candidates for the Patriots would be BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mark Anderson as both of them received larger contracts than their replacements. However, due to the signings of Brandon Lloyd, Steve Gregory, and Jabar Gaffney, I doubt the Patriots will be considered to have a net loss in free agency.

Restricted Free Agent:
A restricted free agent is a free agent with 3 accrued seasons and will frequently be offered a restricted free agent tender from his previous team. The tender is a one year deal whose value dictates what level draft pick must be given to his previous team, should another team sign him. Furthermore, the previous team also has the right of first refusal which allows them to match any offer given to the player within one week. There are three tenders that a team can apply to a player (the values in parentheses are from the 2012 season): first round tender ($2.75M), second round tender ($1.93M), and original round tender ($1.27M).

As an example of how restricted free agency works, I will put forth a scenario many fans were asking for before the draft. Mike Wallace is an elite wide receiver who is entering his prime with a first round tender from the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers do not have a lot of cap space and were actually forced to cut several players to get under the cap before the deadline. Therefore, the Patriots could have given Wallace a large front loaded deal, confident that the Steelers would have been unable to match the offer. If they succeeded, Wallace would sign the deal from the Patriots and the Patriots would give the Steeler their original first round pick (#31 overall in the 2012 draft).

The Patriots have one restricted free agent after this season, Kyle Love. I would not be surprised to see him receiving a second round tender before the start of free agency. If he plays well enough this season, it could bump him up to a first round tender.

Exclusive Rights Free Agent:
An exclusive rights free agent is a free agent with less than 3 accrued seasons. The exclusive rights free agent tender is fairly simple compared to the restricted free variety. The tender is valued at the minimum salary based on the number of accrued seasons and the player is simply not allowed to negotiate with other teams. This tender is incredibly lopsided as the front office clearly has all of the bargaining chips, but these types of free agents are very rare as they are typically undrafted rookies or practice squad players who are coming off of a two year deal and this effectively allows the team to add an extra year to the deal if desired. 


Sterling Moore is the sole free agent who qualifies after the 2012 season. If he continues his growth as a serviceable defensive back (he played at both safety and cornerback), I fully expect the Patriots to use this option and then possibly extend him similar to what they did with Kyle Arrington last year and Gary Guyton the year before.

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: RT Sebastian Vollmer

Colin Read/Icon SMI

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013

Seabass is the anticipated starting right offensive tackle going into the 2012 season. That is, if he is healthy. Also drafted in the second round of the 2009 draft, Vollmer was a pick considered to have a lot of upside, but who was a very raw talent. Vollmer immigrated from Germany to play at the University of Houston for four years. After being drafted, he has spent most his time on the right side, although he did fill in for the injured Matt Light several times at left tackle. In 2010, Vollmer started every game at right tackle and earned second team All-Pro, but was stiffed from the Pro Bowl due to the lack of publicity at the spot. Vollmer continued to show his All-Pro caliber play, but was sidelined for a majority of the 2011 season with a back and foot injury. Due to his late entry into college in America, he is older compared to his draft class.  He will be 28 entering the season, while most draft picks from 2009 will be 24-25.

Proposed Contract: $30M/5 year, $8M guaranteed
This locks up Vollmer for most likely the rest of his career and his average salary of $6M/year makes him one of the better paid right tackles in the league. However, I think this would be a complex contract due to Vollmer's significant injury history. First off, I envision this would be a back loaded contract so a significant chunk of the money would be in the last two years and the Patriots could cut him earlier leaving a lot of money still on the table. Second, the guaranteed money is low compared to the total value of the contract, but this could be balanced with an option bonus in 2015. In other words, if Vollmer is healthy and plays well through the 2012-2014 seasons, he would get an immediate roster bonus which would be cap friendly to the Patriots, but reward Vollmer in the short term for his play.

Year:	Salary:	Signing Bonus:	Option Bonus:	Other Bonus:	Salary Cap:
2013	$900,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$0.00	$100,000.00	$2,600,000.00
2014	$1,400,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$0.00	$100,000.00	$3,100,000.00
2015	$2,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$6,366,666.67
2016	$4,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$8,366,666.67
2017	$5,000,000.00	$1,600,000.00	$2,666,666.67	$100,000.00	$9,366,666.67
				Total:	$29,800,000.00

Signing Bonus: $8M 

Option Bonus: $8M  (2015)

Players Who Could See Extensions/New Contracts: S Patrick Chung

 Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America

Unrestricted Free Agent in 2013

Chung was drafted by the Patriots in the second round in 2009. He is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2012 season. The Patriots defense, their pass defense in particular, was historically terrible this pass season, but Patrick Chung was one of the few bright spots in the secondary. The Patriots defense noticeably suffered when Chung missed 8 games this past season. As shown below, the defense gave up touchdowns twice as often when he was off the field compared to when he was on it. Obviously, not all of those statistics can be attributed to Chung's absence, Brandon Spikes missed the same 8 games and he is also an essential cog to the defense, particularly the run game.

	On Field	Off Field
Plays	661	553
Yds per att	7.7	9.8
Att per TD	25.5	10.0
Rush per TD	36.4	18.8
Source:    ESPN

Proposed Contract: $12.5M/3 year, $2.5M guaranteed

An average of $4.2M/year (similar money to Ryan Clark of the Steelers and Reggie Nelson of the Bengals) solidifies Chung as the starter for the next few years, but not quite at the level of Pro Bowl safeties. I limited the length of the contract due to Chung's difficulties with injuries the past two seasons. This just as easily could be a 4-5 year contract with a clause for a cheaper buyout should he get injured, or a team option for more years with a roster bonus.